Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/106991 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2015
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Ruhr Economic Papers No. 539
Verlag: 
Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI), Essen
Zusammenfassung: 
In periods of unusual weather, forecasters face a problem of interpreting economic data: Which part goes back to the underlying economic trend and which part arises from a special weather effect? In this paper, we discuss ways to disentangle weather-related from business cycle-related influences on economic indicators. We find a significant influence of weather variables at least on a number of monthly indicators. Controlling for weather effects within these indicators should thus create opportunities to increase the accuracy of indicator-based forecasts. Focusing on quarterly GDP growth in Germany, we find that the accuracy of the RWI short term forecasting model improves but advances are small and not significant.
Schlagwörter: 
weather
short term forecasting
bridge equations
forecast accuracy
JEL: 
C53
E37
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
ISBN: 
978-3-86788-617-8
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

Datei(en):
Datei
Größe
391.06 kB





Publikationen in EconStor sind urheberrechtlich geschützt.