Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/106991
Authors: 
Döhrn, Roland
an de Meulen, Philipp
Year of Publication: 
2015
Series/Report no.: 
Ruhr Economic Papers 539
Abstract: 
In periods of unusual weather, forecasters face a problem of interpreting economic data: Which part goes back to the underlying economic trend and which part arises from a special weather effect? In this paper, we discuss ways to disentangle weather-related from business cycle-related influences on economic indicators. We find a significant influence of weather variables at least on a number of monthly indicators. Controlling for weather effects within these indicators should thus create opportunities to increase the accuracy of indicator-based forecasts. Focusing on quarterly GDP growth in Germany, we find that the accuracy of the RWI short term forecasting model improves but advances are small and not significant.
Subjects: 
weather
short term forecasting
bridge equations
forecast accuracy
JEL: 
C53
E37
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
978-3-86788-617-8
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size
391.06 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.