Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/106821
Authors: 
Hendricks, Lutz
Leukhina, Oksana
Year of Publication: 
2015
Series/Report no.: 
CFS Working Paper Series 502
Abstract: 
This paper is motivated by the fact that nearly half of U.S. college students drop out without earning a bachelor's degree. Its objective is to quantify how much uncertainty college entrants face about their graduation outcomes. To do so, we develop a quantitative model of college choice. The innovation is to model in detail how students progress towards a college degree. The model is calibrated using transcript and financial data. We find that more than half of college entrants can predict whether they will graduate with at least 80% probability. As a result, stylized policies that insure students against the financial risks associated with uncertain graduation have little value for the majority of college entrants.
Subjects: 
Education
College dropout risk
JEL: 
E24
J24
I21
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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