Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/106821 
Year of Publication: 
2015
Series/Report no.: 
CFS Working Paper Series No. 502
Publisher: 
Goethe University Frankfurt, Center for Financial Studies (CFS), Frankfurt a. M.
Abstract: 
This paper is motivated by the fact that nearly half of U.S. college students drop out without earning a bachelor's degree. Its objective is to quantify how much uncertainty college entrants face about their graduation outcomes. To do so, we develop a quantitative model of college choice. The innovation is to model in detail how students progress towards a college degree. The model is calibrated using transcript and financial data. We find that more than half of college entrants can predict whether they will graduate with at least 80% probability. As a result, stylized policies that insure students against the financial risks associated with uncertain graduation have little value for the majority of college entrants.
Subjects: 
Education
College dropout risk
JEL: 
E24
J24
I21
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size
855.74 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.