Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/105959
Authors: 
Rietzler, Katja
Stephan, Sabine
Year of Publication: 
2012
Series/Report no.: 
IMK Working Paper 94
Abstract: 
In this paper we present a methodology which can help to improve the assessment of the current economic situation. We propose an approach which combines multivariate single equations to forecast the monthly growth rate of industrial production with a density forecast. This allows to estimate the current recession probability. In the analysis the focus is on the real-time problem, i.e. the fact that the reference series (industrial production) as well as important indicators are not available on a timely basis and are often revised substantially over an extended period. For this reason the whole analysis is carried out under real-time conditions. Indeed the forecast of the recession probabilities allows to identify the recession well before it can be seen in the official data. This result is encouraging. But there is still a substantial need for further research.
Subjects: 
recession probability
density forecast
forecasting
business cycleresearch
real-time data
real-time conditions
JEL: 
E32
E37
C53
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.