Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/105349 
Autor:innen: 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2012
Quellenangabe: 
[Journal:] UTMS Journal of Economics [ISSN:] 1857-6982 [Volume:] 3 [Issue:] 1 [Publisher:] University of Tourism and Management [Place:] Skopje [Year:] 2012 [Pages:] 45-55
Verlag: 
University of Tourism and Management, Skopje
Zusammenfassung: 
The paper makes an attempt to provide estimation of foreign tourism demand by 2014, by investigating the case of Macedonia. The author applies the Box-Jenkins methodology and tests several alternative specifications in the modeling of original time series. Upon the outcomes of standard indicators for accuracy testing, the research identifies the model of ARIMA(1.1.1) with a dummy, as the most appropriate. According to the four-year-forecasts, it is expected a 25% increase of the international tourist arrivals. Although the suggested model cannot explain the driving factors behind the results, the projected values can assist in mitigating the potential negative impacts as well as in the preparation of tourism development plan in Macedonia.
Schlagwörter: 
forecasting
Box-Jenkins methodology
international tourism demand
Macedonia
JEL: 
C53
L83
Dokumentart: 
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