Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/105349
Authors: 
Petrevska, Biljana
Year of Publication: 
2012
Citation: 
[Journal:] UTMS Journal of Economics [ISSN:] 1857-6982 [Volume:] 3 [Year:] 2012 [Issue:] 1 [Pages:] 45-55
Abstract: 
The paper makes an attempt to provide estimation of foreign tourism demand by 2014, by investigating the case of Macedonia. The author applies the Box-Jenkins methodology and tests several alternative specifications in the modeling of original time series. Upon the outcomes of standard indicators for accuracy testing, the research identifies the model of ARIMA(1.1.1) with a dummy, as the most appropriate. According to the four-year-forecasts, it is expected a 25% increase of the international tourist arrivals. Although the suggested model cannot explain the driving factors behind the results, the projected values can assist in mitigating the potential negative impacts as well as in the preparation of tourism development plan in Macedonia.
Subjects: 
forecasting
Box-Jenkins methodology
international tourism demand
Macedonia
JEL: 
C53
L83
Document Type: 
Article
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