Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/104405 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2013
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Munich Discussion Paper No. 2013-13
Verlag: 
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, München
Zusammenfassung: 
In this paper, we assess the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts at the regional level using a large data set at quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden- Württemberg) and Eastern Germany. We overcome the problem of a ’data-poor environment’ at the sub-national level by complementing various regional indicators with more than 200 national and international indicators. We calculate single– indicator, multi–indicator, pooled and factor forecasts in a pseudo real–time setting. Our results show that we can significantly increase forecast accuracy compared to an autoregressive benchmark model, both for short and long term predictions. Furthermore, regional indicators play a crucial role for forecasting regional GDP.
Schlagwörter: 
regional forecasting
forecast combination
factor models
model confidence set
data–rich environment
JEL: 
C32
C52
C53
E37
R11
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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