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SFB 649 Discussion Paper No. 2014-042
Humboldt University of Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649 - Economic Risk, Berlin
In practice, multivariate dependencies between extreme risks are often only assessed in a pairwise way. We propose a test to detect when tail dependence is truly high{dimensional and bivariate simpli cations would produce misleading results. This occurs when a signi cant portion of the multivariate dependence structure in the tails is of higher dimension than two. Our test statistic is based on a decomposition of the stable tail dependence function, which is standard in extreme value theory for describing multivariate tail dependence. The asymptotic properties of the test are provided and a bootstrap based nite sample version of the test is suggested. A simulation study documents the good performance of the test for standard sample sizes. In an application to international government bonds, we detect a high tail{risk and low return situation during the last decade which can essentially be attributed to increased higher-order tail risk. We also illustrate the empirical consequences from ignoring higher-dimensional tail risk.
decomposition of tail dependence
multivariate extreme values
stable tail dependence function
subsample bootstrap
tail correlation
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Working Paper

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