Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/101128 
Year of Publication: 
2014
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper Sustainability and Innovation No. S13/2014
Publisher: 
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI, Karlsruhe
Abstract (Translated): 
The development of both, emerging markets as well as the already establish markets (USA, Japan, Europe), is highly relevant for future success of the export-oriented German automotive industry. This paper describes the so called Global Mobility Model (GLOMO) based on the system dynamics approach, which simulates the future development of car sales by segment and drive technology. The modularized model contains population, income and GDP development in order to describe the framework in the most important markets (USA, Japan, EU, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). According to the changes in framework conditions within these countries, worldwide car sales will nearly double up to 2030 (120 Mio. cars a year), with the most dynamic development in the Chinese market. The simulation results also show that - depending on the chosen scenario - a 40 %- share of alternative drive technologies within the worldwide car sales in 2030 seems to be possible.
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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