Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/100887
Authors: 
Kilian, Lutz
Zha, Tao
Year of Publication: 
1999
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 99-21
Abstract: 
The half-life of deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) plays a central role in the ongoing debate about the ability of macroeconomic models to account for the time series behavior of the real exchange rate. The main contribution of this paper is a general framework in which alternative priors for the half-life of deviations from PPP can be examined. We show how to incorporate formally the prior views of economists about the half-life. In our empirical analysis we provide two examples of such priors. One example is a consensus prior consistent with widely held views among economists with a professional interest in the PPP debate. The other example is a relatively diffuse prior designed to capture a large degree of uncertainty about the half-life. Our methodology allows us to make explicit probability statements about the half-life and to assess the likelihood that the half-life exceeds a given number of years, without taking a stand on whether or not the data have a unit root. We find only very limited support for the common view in the PPP literature that the half-life is between three and five years.
Subjects: 
Econometric models
Purchasing power parity
Time-series analysis
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size
128.74 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.