Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
Leeper, Eric M.
Zha, Tao
Year of Publication: 
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper 99-22
This paper brings together identification and forecasting in a positive econometric analysis of policy. We contend that a broad range of important policy questions is consistent with the existing policy process and is not subject to Lucas's critique. We analyze the economics of "business as usual" and show that modest policy interventions, whose effects can be projected even if expectations are modeled as depending solely on past policy, can address routine questions like those raised at regular policy meetings. And modest interventions matter: they can shift the projected paths and probability distributions of macro variables in economically meaningful ways.
Monetary policy
Vector autoregression
Document Type: 
Working Paper
Social Media Mentions:

Files in This Item:
313.03 kB

Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.