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    <title>EconStor Collection:</title>
    <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/88097</link>
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    <pubDate>Wed, 29 Apr 2026 17:56:39 GMT</pubDate>
    <dc:date>2026-04-29T17:56:39Z</dc:date>
    <item>
      <title>How severe are European regulatory stress test scenarios? A probabilistic calibration for the euro area</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/335012</link>
      <description>Title: How severe are European regulatory stress test scenarios? A probabilistic calibration for the euro area
Authors: Dallari, Pietro; Gattini, Luca
Abstract: This paper applies the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework to assess downside risks to euro area GDP growth, and it examines its usefulness for stress testing. Supervisory stress-test scenarios are often criticized for being either too mild or implausibly severe, raising questions about calibration. This is consequential for banks' business plans as well as for systemic financial stability. We conduct a pseudo real-time evaluation of European Banking Authority (EBA) adverse scenarios published in the last decade, establishing a probabilistic benchmark against which their scenario severity can be evaluated. We find that, except for the 2021 and 2023 rounds, EBA adverse scenarios consistently lie below the 10th percentile threshold. After the pandemic shock, scenario severity and model-implied risks have moved in opposite directions, with GaR estimates pointing to declining downside risks and EBA scenarios becoming increasingly severe. However, these still fall within the models' probability distributions and therefore represent plausible-if extreme-realizations of downside risk. Supporting exercises attribute downside risks primarily to financial stress in the short-term, while medium-term horizons are shaped by term structure and housing or credit channels more. Taken together, these results suggest that GaR can serve as a transparent, data-driven complement to expert judgment in stress-test scenario design-helping to balance severity with plausibility and enhancing scenarios' credibility for financial stability assessments.</description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
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      <dc:date>2026-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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    <item>
      <title>AI adoption, productivity and employment: Evidence from European firms</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/335876</link>
      <description>Title: AI adoption, productivity and employment: Evidence from European firms
Authors: Aldasoro, Iñaki; Gambacorta, Leonardo; Pal, Rozalia; Revoltella, Debora; Weiss, Christoph; Wolski, Marcin
Abstract: This paper provides new evidence on how the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) affects productivity and employment in Europe. Using matched EIBIS-ORBIS data on more than 12,000 non-financial firms in the European Union (EU) and United States (US), we instrument the adoption of AI by EU firms by assigning the adoption rates of US peers to isolate exogenous technological exposure. Our results show that AI adoption increases the level of labor productivity by 4%. Productivity gains are due to capital deepening, as we find no adverse effects on firm-level employment. This suggests that AI increases worker output rather than replacing labor in the short run, though longer-term effects remain uncertain. However, productivity benefits of AI adoption are unevenly distributed and concentrate in medium and large firms. Moreover, AI-adopting firms are more innovative and their workers earn higher wages. Our analysis also highlights the critical role of complementary investments in software and data or workforce training to fully unlock the productivity gains of AI adoption.</description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
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      <dc:date>2026-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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    <item>
      <title>Catalysing corporate energy efficiency investment: Financial and regulatory factors</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/338073</link>
      <description>Title: Catalysing corporate energy efficiency investment: Financial and regulatory factors
Authors: Tueske, Annamaria; Lasheras Sancho, Marta
Abstract: Over the past decades, a growing body of research has examined the structural and behavioral barriers that hinder firms from adopting cost-effective technologies to improve energy efficiency. In this paper, we draw on firm-level data from the EIB Investment Survey combined with energy efficiency regulatory indicators from the World Bank's RISE database to analyse two key strategic decisions: firms' likelihood of investing in energy efficiency, and the share of total investment allocated to such measures. Accounting for self-selection into energy efficiency investments, we find that financial constraints, particularly among SMEs, can limit firms' ability toundertake these long-term investments. Moreover, the share of investment allocated to energy efficiency is positively associated with the strength of a country's incentive-based energy efficiency regulatory framework.</description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/10419/338073</guid>
      <dc:date>2026-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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    <item>
      <title>Sovereign debt dynamics at the brink of default and the special role of supranational lenders</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/338084</link>
      <description>Title: Sovereign debt dynamics at the brink of default and the special role of supranational lenders
Authors: Zwart, Sanne
Abstract: Compared with the relatively straightforward definition of a default event, assessing sovereign debt sustainability remains a grey area. The interaction between fiscal choices, lenders' expectations and economic uncertainty creates a setting in which-particularly when a default looms-anticipation and coordination can matter as much as analysing economic fundamentals. To explore these rich debt dynamics, we develop a parsimonious model in which a government repeatedly makes fiscal and default decisions, while lenders demand bond yields that compensate for default risk. The model sheds light on when and why governments demonstrate fiscal prudence or even build fiscal buffers. It also illustrates how lenders' beliefs, by selecting the equilibrium outcome, can constrain a government's ability to issue debt-highlighting the influence of actors such as credit rating agencies that help form these beliefs. Notably, besides debt levels and lenders' expectations, the maturity profile of debt emerges endogenously as a key dimension of debt sustainability. Finally, we examine the role of supranational lenders in the international financial architecture. We find that well-designed financial support, whether to avoid crises or remedy the underprovision of commercial lending, constitutes a distinct class of debt, while markets still impose fiscal discipline on the sovereign.</description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/10419/338084</guid>
      <dc:date>2026-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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