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    <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/66496</link>
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    <pubDate>Wed, 29 Apr 2026 22:04:15 GMT</pubDate>
    <dc:date>2026-04-29T22:04:15Z</dc:date>
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      <title>Monetary policy and real estate price distortions: How bank lending amplifies housing market imbalances</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/318512</link>
      <description>Title: Monetary policy and real estate price distortions: How bank lending amplifies housing market imbalances
Authors: Baye, Vera; Dinger, Valeriya
Abstract: We empirically document deviations of residential real estate prices from fundamental values at the micro level and investigate their relationship with local bank lending growth during a period of unconventional monetary policy. Our findings indicate a positive relationship between credit growth and excessive price increases in real estate markets, with interest rate reductions further amplifying these credit-driven price distortions. Additionally, we provide evidence that banks' search-for-yield behavior explains the increase in lending, particularly among deposit-funded banks that experienced a squeeze of margins during the negative monetary policy rate period. This credit expansion, in turn, directly influences the real economy by fueling local housing markets. In our analysis, we exploit that the introduction of negative monetary policy rates affected banks differently depending on their ex-ante liquidity and relate micro-level real estate data to balance sheet information from locally operating banks and macroeconomic variables.</description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/10419/318512</guid>
      <dc:date>2025-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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      <title>An in-sample evaluation of exchange rate models: In search of scapegoats</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/318486</link>
      <description>Title: An in-sample evaluation of exchange rate models: In search of scapegoats
Authors: Cheung, Yin-Wong; Wang, Wenhao; Westermann, Frank
Abstract: A modified dynamic model averaging framework, which allows for inferences regarding the shifting relevance and significance of explanatory variables, is employed to evaluate the in-sample performance of exchange rate models. This analysis is based on a set of 16,384 model specifications derived from 14 canonical and newly introduced explanatory variables. Our findings indicate: (a) frequent changes in the model specification that best describes an exchange rate, (b) the relevance of individual explanatory variables is not stable over time and varies across exchange rates, with these variables exhibiting differential and sometimes opposing effects, and displaying non-uniform strengths across different exchange rates and periods, (c) the combination of economic and/or financial variables that enhances the empirical evidence of purchasing power parity (PPP) is specific to each exchange rate. These results underscore the challenges associated with employing a single exchange rate model or the scapegoat hypothesis to describe all exchange rates across all time periods.</description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/10419/318486</guid>
      <dc:date>2025-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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      <title>Not-so-innocent bystanders: Trade with neighbors of sanctioned countries</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/302859</link>
      <description>Title: Not-so-innocent bystanders: Trade with neighbors of sanctioned countries
Authors: Suprunenko, Daria
Abstract: Geographic neighbors of sanctioned countries (targets) may suffer from indirect effects of sanctions or benefit by helping targets circumvent restrictions. I study the effects of sanctions on trade among neighbors and targets using data from BACI for 2002-2022 and separately accounting for export of sensitive goods: arms, dual use goods and machinery. I find that export of dual use goods (in value) and machinery (in value and weight) from benevolent neighbors to targets increases when sanctions are in place. Additionally, I show that the weight of arms exported by neighbors to Iran, as well as value of dual use goods and weight of machinery exported to Russia were significantly higher with sanctions in place suggesting that their neighbors were not innocent bystanders.</description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 01 Jan 2024 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/10419/302859</guid>
      <dc:date>2024-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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      <title>Ukrainian export and production after the 2014 Russia shock</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/306521</link>
      <description>Title: Ukrainian export and production after the 2014 Russia shock
Authors: Suprunenko, Daria
Abstract: While significant attention has been dedicated to sanctions episodes among major economies which usually rely on a diverse set of trade partners, little is known about the impact of sanctions imposed by senders on economies highly dependent on them. Using Ukrainian export data for 2009-2019 at product level, I study the effects of trade restrictions imposed by the Russian Federation against Ukraine since 2016 accounting for the impact of Russian occupation and destruction of productive capacities. I find no evidence for evasion of Russian trade policy measures via export to other members of the Eurasian Economic Union or product misclassification, instead trade flows were redirected to new destinations. Industries with higher exposure to Russian market experienced significant reductions in employment, number of enterprises and turnover when targeted by embargo.</description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 01 Jan 2024 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/10419/306521</guid>
      <dc:date>2024-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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