https://hdl.handle.net/10419/51420 Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), Washington, DC Sat, 24 Oct 2026 06:39:12 GMT 2026-10-24T06:39:12Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/309191 Title: Employment dynamics during COVID-19 in Uruguay Authors: Amarante, Verónica; Galván, Estefanía; Yapor, Mijail Abstract: This paper provides novel insights into labor market dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent recovery period in Uruguay. Using social security administrative records, we focus on the gender-differentiated patterns of labor market transitions following the pandemic outbreak, compared to a previous period. Furthermore, we evaluate the role of unemployment insurance (UI) as an instrument for employment protection during the pandemic-induced recession. The analysis reveals that womenparticularly those with children and earning low wagesexperienced greater employment and wage losses compared to men at the pandemics onset, though they showed signs of recovery in later periods. Moreover, women were more likely to transition from UI to formal employment during the pandemic, diverging from previous trends, largely due to the suspension modality (similar to a temporary lay-off) of the Uruguayan UI program. Through a regression discontinuity (RD) approach, the study identifies positive local effects of the beneficiaries of the UI suspension program on the probability of being employed and earning higher wages for both men and women, eight and twelve months after entering the program. These findings carry significant policy implications, underlying the importance of maintaining and potentially expanding UI programs with temporary suspension schemes, and the necessity of adapting social protection systems to respond quickly to crises. Our results underscore the potential of temporary layoff unemployment insurance schemes in developing countries as effective tools to address unexpected crises or shocks like COVID-19, preserving employment relationships and facilitating faster economic recovery. Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/10419/309191 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/309190 Title: Assessing the role of tax-benefit systems in reducing the gender income gap in Latin America Authors: Deza, María Cecilia; Dondo, Mariana; Jara, H. Xavier; Rodriguez, David; Torres, Javier Abstract: This paper aims to assess the extent to which cash transfers, direct taxes, and social contributions help to reduce gender income inequalities in seven Latin American countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay. We apply microsimulation techniques to household survey data and allocate incomes within the household, assuming that each person retains the income they receive (e.g., earnings, benefits targeting mothers) and pays taxes and social insurance contributions on an individual basis according to each countrys rules. Then, we compare gender income ratios based on market (before taxes and benefits) and disposable (after taxes and benefits) income. Our results show that, at the bottom of the distribution, tax-benefit systems significantly reduce gender income disparities in most countries due to the effect of social assistance benefits received by mothers in poor households. Additionally, we find that women have substantially higher poverty rates than men based on individual disposable income. Gender differences in poverty fade away when income is pooled at the couple level and, even more so, at the household level. Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/10419/309190 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/309192 Title: Low pass-through from inflation expectations to income growth expectations: Why people dislike inflation Authors: Hajdini, Ina; Knotek, Edward S.; Leer, John; Pedemonte, Mathieu; Rich, Robert W.; Schoenle, Raphael Abstract: Using a large, nationally representative survey of US consumers, we estimate a causal 20 percent pass-through from inflation expectations to income growth expectations for the average consumer, with considerable heterogeneity in pass-through associated with sociodemographic factors. The results also indicate that higher inflation expectations cause an increase in consumers' likelihood to search for higher-paying jobs but do not change the likelihood of asking for a raise, suggesting that consumers recognize significant wage rigidity with their current employer. In a calibrated search-and-matching model, we find that demand and supply shocks combined with incomplete pass-through produce a strong negative relationship between expected inflation and expected utility. Taken together, the survey results and model analysis provide a labor market account of why people dislike inflation. Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/10419/309192 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/309193 Title: Droughts and domestic violence: Measuring the gender-climate nexus Authors: Aguilar-Gómez, Sandra; Salazar-Díaz, Andrea Abstract: Every year, 245 million women are victims of intimate partner violence (IPV). Climate change is hypothesized to exacerbate this figure through its disruptive impact on household livelihoods, among other channels. However, little causal evidence exists on this aspect of the climate-gender nexus, partly due to measurement challenges that have contributed to gaps in the literature. In this paper, we use three different IPV data sources to examine the effect of drought in Mexico and the role of agricultural vulnerability in intensifying these effects. We find robust evidence of increases in all measures of IPV in response to local precipitation deficits: as unanticipated exposure to days without rain in the previous month rises, more injuries linked to IPV are recorded in the public health system, police reports increase, and more 911 calls related to IPV are made. The effects are stronger in regions highly dependent on agriculture, particularly when the shock occurs during the growing season. In a country where most agricultural income and land are controlled by men, our results align with theoretical predictions from male-backlash IPV models and extractive violence models. We also find that the impact of drought on IPV is more pronounced in municipalities with low state capacity, though potential differences in reporting behavior between IPV measures complicate comparisons. Our findings underscore the need to design gender-sensitive disaster relief policies, strengthen trust in reporting mechanisms and helplines, and reduce the social acceptability of IPV. Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/10419/309193 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z