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    <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/50321</link>
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    <pubDate>Thu, 30 Apr 2026 02:02:47 GMT</pubDate>
    <dc:date>2026-04-30T02:02:47Z</dc:date>
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      <title>Resilience of small open economies to geopolitical shocks: The case of Switzerland</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/318431</link>
      <description>Title: Resilience of small open economies to geopolitical shocks: The case of Switzerland
Authors: Gersbach, Hans; Maunoir, Paul Maxence; Walsh, Kieran James
Abstract: We extend a quantitative general equilibrium model of global trade networks to evaluate the economic impacts of various trade disruptions. Our analysis considers scenarios such as US-China trade wars, a broader Cold War 2.0 decoupling, Trump-era tariffs, and disruptions in the trade of critical inputs. We assess effects across 34 countries/regions and 38 industries, with a particular focus on Switzerland and its key sectors. We also account for second-layer effects, which can mitigate but, in most cases, amplify or considerably amplify the impacts predicted by our model. By highlighting both vulnerabilities and opportunities within the Swiss economy, we provide insights into the level of resilience of a small open economy to geopolitical shocks.</description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
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      <dc:date>2025-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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      <title>Strategic debt in a monetary economy</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/318545</link>
      <description>Title: Strategic debt in a monetary economy
Authors: Althanns, Markus; van Buggenum, Hugo
Abstract: Producers can leverage their bargaining power vis-'a-vis consumers by entering bargaining with debt. We discover novel general-equilibrium effects of such strategic debt by developing a money-search framework featuring heterogeneous consumers. Debt distorts trade along two margins: it destroys matches with low-preference consumers and it tightens liquidity constraints within matches. While the fiscal authority can fully eliminate strategic debt through taxation, in its absence, monetary policy can partially curb it by deviating from the Friedman rule-raising nominal rates up until 0.51%. Finally, we show that producers can leverage their bargaining power even more effectively with contracts different from debt.</description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/10419/318545</guid>
      <dc:date>2025-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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    <item>
      <title>Measuring economic sentiment from open-ended survey comments using large language models</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/333509</link>
      <description>Title: Measuring economic sentiment from open-ended survey comments using large language models
Authors: Seiler, Pascal
Abstract: This article develops a novel economic sentiment indicator (LLM-ESI) by applying large language models to open-ended responses from Swiss business tendency surveys. Using a BERT-based transformer model, it extracts firmlevel sentiment from free-text survey comments and aggregates it into a highfrequency indicator of macroeconomic conditions. The LLM-ESI closely tracks the business cycle and performs on par with, or better than, traditional benchmarks in nowcasting GDP. These results highlight the potential of large language models and open-ended survey responses to deliver timely and nuanced signals for real-time economic analysis.</description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
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      <dc:date>2025-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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    <item>
      <title>Young firms under pressure: Heterogeneous investment responses to a trade shock</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/333460</link>
      <description>Title: Young firms under pressure: Heterogeneous investment responses to a trade shock
Authors: Dibiasi, Andreas; Erhardt, Katharina
Abstract: This paper studies heterogeneous firm responses to a sudden trade-induced profitability shock - the 2015 Swiss franc appreciation. Using firm-level investment data and a novel measure of exposure, we document that this trade shock causes large and persistent investment declines among affected firms. Examining heterogeneous responses among firms with similar exposure, we find that differences in responsiveness are not explained by economic fundamentals but are strongly linked to firm age and managerial experience. Younger firms and those led by less experienced managers react substantially more strongly. We argue that these empirical patterns are consistent with a model of Bayesian learning, in which firms update their beliefs about profitability over time. The results provide important insights into the long-lasting effects of trade shocks on business dynamism, capital investment, and local employment.</description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
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      <dc:date>2025-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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