https://hdl.handle.net/10419/45646 Wed, 23 Sep 2026 05:08:16 GMT 2026-09-23T05:08:16Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/317773 Title: "Economic Discomfort" in Germany 1951 to 2021: Results and policy implications Authors: Heilemann, Ullrich; Schuhr, Roland Abstract: Okun's misery index (MI), the sum of unemployment rate and inflation rate, is a popular measure of the state of the economy and thus of (macro) '' Economic Discomfort'' as well as of government performance. We calculate the MI and some augmentations for Germany (until 1990: West Germany) for the period 1951-2021 and test them against a survey-based indicator of government performance ("ZDF-Politbarometer-Index"). The results support Okun's choice of variables, but reject its augmentation by the growth rate and the deficit ratio. Just as importantly, the effect of unemployment is almost twice as large as that of inflation, and both change considerably over time, as stability tests show. In assessing the performance of governments, MI rankings differ from those of their augmentations. Since the mid-1970s, however, the differences are limited. Barro's Misery Index, a comparative approach to assessing governments that is an alternative to MI, reaches opposite judgments than MI, but lacks empirical support. The implications for policymakers are both sobering and reassuring: as policy simulations and implied Phillips type trade-offs reveal, the sensitivity of MIs to macroeconomic policy is very low. This may not only hold for Germany given similar international evidence on MIs. The fact that the MI covers the two main macroeconomic objectives, is based on the latest official data, easy to calculate and internationally comparable makes Okun's Misery Index a useful indicator of Economic Discomfort for Germany as well. Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/10419/317773 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/312399 Title: Joint technological changes in multiple industries Authors: Quaas, Georg Abstract: Most neo-Ricardian studies on the "choice of technique" are based on a comparison of alternative technologies applicable to the same industrial branch. Some authors even recommend restrict analyses of the long-run technological changes to a single industry. In reality, innovations often require technological changes in several industries. In this article, it is shown that a step-by-step analysis of complex technological innovations is path-dependent and does not always lead to a result. Furthermore: The number of mathematically possible switch-points is reduced by the number of affected industries and by ambiguous price relations in the vicinity of intersection-points of wage curves. This could, without simplification of Sraffa's theory, explain why situations in which two alternative technologies generate the same prices, i.e. switch-points, are empirically extremely rare events. Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/10419/312399 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/334494 Title: "From here on it got rough..." – Misery Indices and German Federal Governments 1951 to 2024 Authors: Heilemann, Ullrich; Schuhr, Roland Abstract: Okun's Misery Index (MI), which is the sum of the rates of unemployment and inflation, is a popular measure used to assess the economic situation, as well as (macroeconomic) 'economic discomfort' and government performance. We use three variants of the MI to evaluate legislative periods and Federal Chancellors between 1951 and 2024. The rankings calculated using these variants differ notably, particularly until the mid-1970s. However, the differences are limited thereafter. The results contrast sharply with those of the Barro Misery Index, a comparative measure of government performance. The findings have both sobering and reassuring implications for politics. Usual macroeconomic interventions do not affect MIs and BMIs to a sizeable degree. Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/10419/334494 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/289620 Title: Monetary policy and bank-type resilience in Germany from 1999 to 2022 Authors: Sepp, Tim Florian; Israel, Karl-Friedrich; Treitz, Benjamin; Hartl, Tom Abstract: This paper examines the heterogeneous effects of the ECB's monetary policies on the resilience of the German banking system between 1999 to 2022. We distinguish between the main bank types in Germany: Large Banks, Regional Banks, Sparkassen, Landesbanken and Credit Unions. We proxy bank-type resilience by a zscore measure. We use structural monetary policy shocks relying on high-frequency identification methods. Unconventional monetary policy shocks are decomposed into three parts: timing shocks, forward guidance, and quantitative easing. We estimate the resilience of German bank types in response to expansionary monetary policy shocks by producing impulse response functions through local projections. Conventional monetary easing is associated with weakened resilience for all bank types. Unconventional monetary policies have heterogeneous effects on German bank types. Shocks to short-term interest rate expectations (i.e. timing shocks) are associated with increasing resilience of Large Banks, Regional Banks and Landesbanken, but with decreasing resilience of the others. Forward guidance only has a positive impact on the resilience of Sparkassen. Large-scale asset purchases through quantitative easing tend to the increase resilience of Large Banks and Sparkassen, but decrease the resilience of Regional Banks, Credit Unions and Landesbanken, in both, the short and long run. Mon, 01 Jan 2024 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/10419/289620 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z