https://hdl.handle.net/10419/45401 Tue, 15 Sep 2026 23:20:50 GMT 2026-09-15T23:20:50Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/311730 Title: Kahramanmaraş Depremlerinin Mikro Veriye Dayalı Ekonomik Etki Analizi Authors: Pınar, Enes; Taymaz, Erol; Yılmaz, Kamil Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/10419/311730 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/322140 Title: Tradeoffs over rate cycles: Activity, inflation and the price level Authors: Forbes, Kristin; Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan Abstract: Central banks often face tradeoffs in how their monetary policy decisions impact economic activity (including employment), inflation and the price level. This paper assesses how these tradeoffs have evolved over time and varied across countries, with a focus on understanding the post-pandemic adjustment. To make these comparisons, we compile a cross-country, historical database of "rate cycles" (i.e., easing and tightening phases for monetary policy) for 24 advanced economies from 1970 through 2024. This allows us to quantify the characteristics of interest rate adjustments and corresponding macroeconomic outcomes and tradeoffs. We also calculate Sacrifice Ratios (output losses per inflation reduction) and document a historically low "sacrifice" during the post-pandemic tightening. This popular measure, however, ignores adjustments in the price level-which increased by more after the pandemic than over the past four decades. A series of regressions and simulations suggest monetary policy (and particularly the timing and aggressiveness of rate hikes) play a meaningful role in explaining these tradeoffs and how adjustments occur during tightening phases. Central bank credibility is the one measure we assess that corresponds to only positive outcomes and no difficult tradeoffs. Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/10419/322140 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/331475 Title: From tailwinds to headwinds: Emerging and developing economies in the twenty-first century Authors: Mozzanica, Mirco Balatti; Kose, M. Ayhan; McKinnon, Kate; Palombo, Edoardo; Sugawara, Naotaka; Verduzco-Bustos, Guillermo; Vorisek, Dana Abstract: The first quarter of the twenty-first century has been transformative for emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). These economies now account for about 45 percent of global GDP, up from about 25 percent in 2000, a trend driven by robust collective growth in the three largest EMDEs - China, India, and Brazil (the EM3). Collectively, EMDEs have contributed about 60 percent of annual global growth since 2000, on average, double the share during the 1990s. Their ascendance was powered by swift global trade and financial integration, especially during the first decade of the century. Interdependence among these economies has also increased markedly. Today, nearly half of goods exports from EMDEs go to other EMDEs, compared to one-quarter in 2000. As cross-border linkages have strengthened, business cycles among EMDEs and between EMDEs and advanced economies have become more synchronized, and a distinct EMDE business cycle has emerged. Cross-border business cycle spillovers from the EM3 to other EMDEs are sizable, at about half of the magnitude of spillovers from the largest advanced economies (the United States, the euro area, and Japan). Yet EMDEs confront a host of headwinds at the turn of the second quarter of the century. Progress implementing structural reforms in many of these economies has stalled. Globally, protectionist measures and geopolitical fragmentation have risen sharply. High debt burdens, demographic shifts, and the rising costs of climate change weigh on economic prospects. A successful policy approach to accelerate growth and development should focus on boosting investment and productivity, navigating a difficult external environment, and enhancing macroeconomic stability. Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/10419/331475 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/311557 Title: The great reversal Authors: Chrimes, Tommy; Gootjes, Bram; Kose, M. Ayhan; Wheeler, Collette Abstract: The shock of the pandemic and subsequent overlapping crises has led to a reversal in development by exacerbating the challenges facing the most vulnerable 75 economies eligible for concessional loans and grants from the World Bank's International Development Association (IDA). Over 2020-24, per capita incomes in half of IDA countries-the largest share since the start of this century-have been growing more slowly than those of wealthy economies. One out of three IDA countries is poorer than it was on the eve of the pandemic. Poverty remains stubbornly high, hunger has surged, and, amid fiscal constraints and rising investment needs, the development outlook could take an even bleaker turn-especially if weak growth prospects persist. IDA countries have several important demographic and resource advantages that could-if leveraged effectively-help close development gaps. Reaping the benefits of their advantages and meeting investment needs will require them to undertake comprehensive policy measures to bolster fiscal and monetary frameworks, enhance human capital development, and improve the quality of institutions. These policies should be complemented with significant and consistent international financial support as well as strong cooperation on global policy issues. Mon, 01 Jan 2024 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/10419/311557 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z