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    <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/45399</link>
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    <pubDate>Wed, 22 Apr 2026 16:58:53 GMT</pubDate>
    <dc:date>2026-04-22T16:58:53Z</dc:date>
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      <title>Big news: Climate change and the business cycle</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/271523</link>
      <description>Title: Big news: Climate change and the business cycle
Authors: Dietrich, Alexander M.; Müller, Gernot J.; Schoenle, Raphael
Abstract: News drive expectations about the economy's future fundamentals. Climate change is big news: it will impact the economy profoundly but the effect will take some time to materialize in full. Climate-change expectations thus offer a unique opportunity to study the impact of news on the business cycle. We measure these expectations in a representative survey of US consumers. Respondents expect not much of an impact on GDP growth, but perceive a high probability of costly, rare disasters-suggesting they are salient of climate change. Furthermore, expectations vary systematically with socioeconomic characteristics, media consumption, various information treatments and over time. We calibrate a New Keynesian model with rare disasters to key results of the survey and find that shifts in climate change expectations operate like demand shocks and cause sizeable business cycle fluctuations.</description>
      <pubDate>Sun, 01 Jan 2023 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/10419/271523</guid>
      <dc:date>2023-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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      <title>Consumption categories, household attention, and inflation expectations: Implications for optimal monetary policy</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/271522</link>
      <description>Title: Consumption categories, household attention, and inflation expectations: Implications for optimal monetary policy
Authors: Dietrich, Alexander M.
Abstract: What inflation measure should central banks target? This paper shows optimal monetary policy targets headline inflation if households pay limited attention to different consumption categories when forming inflation expectations. This result stands in contrast to standard rational expectations models, where optimal policy targets core inflation. The core inflation rate excludes volatile energy and food prices (non-core) from headline inflation. Using novel survey data on inflation expectations for disaggregated consumption categories, I find household expectations are disproportionately driven by beliefs about future non-core prices. I develop a sparsity-based rational inattention model to account for the empirical evidence. While forming inflation expectations, households pay attention to the volatile non-core components; the stable core inflation component receives little attention. Finally, I embed this framework into a multi-sector New Keynesian model to derive the optimal inflation target. In the model, targeting headline inflation is optimal, whereas a core inflation target would fail to stabilize the economy sufficiently.</description>
      <pubDate>Sun, 01 Jan 2023 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/10419/271522</guid>
      <dc:date>2023-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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      <title>The Phillips curve in the euro area: New evidence using country-level data</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/271521</link>
      <description>Title: The Phillips curve in the euro area: New evidence using country-level data
Authors: Wellmann, Susanne
Abstract: We study whether the trade-off between inflation and unemployment still exists in the euro area (EA). Using country-level data for member states of the EA, we estimate a refined specification of the Phillips curve in the spirit of Hazell et al. (2022) deploying a non-tradable price index to measure inflation. We find that the slope of the Phillips curve is small and hence the Phillips curve is flat in the EA, similarly to the US. Moreover, reference estimates based on aggregate data overstate the steepness of the Phillips curve considerably. Our findings imply that the insensitivity of inflation with respect to unemployment over the last decade is a result of firmly anchored inflation expectations.</description>
      <pubDate>Sun, 01 Jan 2023 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/10419/271521</guid>
      <dc:date>2023-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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      <title>The tragedy of the common holdings: Coordination strategies and product market competition</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/262301</link>
      <description>Title: The tragedy of the common holdings: Coordination strategies and product market competition
Authors: Neus, Werner; Stadler, Manfred
Abstract: We study quantity and price competition in heterogeneous triopoly markets where two firms are commonly owned by institutional shareholders, whereas the third firm is owned by independent shareholders. With such a mixed ownership structure, the common owners have an incentive to coordinate their firms' behavior. If direct coordination of the operational decisions is prevented by antitrust authorities, delegation to managers enables indirect coordination via the designs of the manager compensation contracts. Compared to direct owner collusion, this more sophisticated type of indirect collusion leads to a lower loss of social welfare in the mode of quantity competition, but to a higher loss of welfare in the mode of price competition. In general, owner coordination via the management compensation contracts is detrimental to welfare: the tragedy of common holdings.</description>
      <pubDate>Sat, 01 Jan 2022 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/10419/262301</guid>
      <dc:date>2022-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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