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    <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/215642</link>
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    <pubDate>Sat, 09 May 2026 19:51:53 GMT</pubDate>
    <dc:date>2026-05-09T19:51:53Z</dc:date>
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      <title>Trajectories to high income: comparing the growth dynamics in China, Korea, and Japan with cointegrated VAR models</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/215658</link>
      <description>Title: Trajectories to high income: comparing the growth dynamics in China, Korea, and Japan with cointegrated VAR models
Authors: Murach, Michael; Wagner, Helmut; Kim, Jungsuk; Park, Donghyun
Abstract: We analyze and compare the patterns of economic growth and development in China, Korea, and Japan in the post-war period. The geographical proximity and cultural affinity between the three countries, as well as the key role of the development state in the economies, suggest that an analytical comparison would be a meaningful and valuable exercise. Furthermore, Korea and Japan are two of the few economies that have jumped from middle income to high income in a short period and thus offer potentially valuable lessons for China. China is following a structural change that Korea and Japan underwent decades ago. We use Cobb--Douglas production functions to assess the long-run equilibrium relationships between per capita GDP, capital, and labor as well as the features of structural change by means of cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) models. We show that such equilibrium relationships cannot be rejected for all three countries, while the evidence is stronger for China and Korea than for Japan. Our hypothesis tests show that the estimated Cobb--Douglas production functions display coefficients of capital and employment that sum up to one and broken linear trends that can be attributed to structural breaks and (changes in) total factor productivity (TFP) growth. We observe a striking similarity between the Korean and the Chinese experience, which gives some optimism that China may be capable of graduating to high income, like Korea.</description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 01 Jan 2020 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/10419/215658</guid>
      <dc:date>2020-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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    <item>
      <title>Networking topography and default contagion in China’s financial system</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/215659</link>
      <description>Title: Networking topography and default contagion in China’s financial system
Authors: Fittje, Jens; Wagner, Helmut
Abstract: The topography of China's financial network is unique. Is it also uniquely robust to contagion? We explore this question using network theory. We find that networks that are more concentrated are less fragile when connectivity is low. However, they remain in a robust-yet-fragile state longer than decentralized networks, when connectivity is increased. We implement Chinese characteristics into our model and simulate it numerically. The simulations show, that the large state-controlled banks act as effective stop-gaps for contagion, which makes the Chinese network relatively robust. This robustness is significantly reduced, if a significant share of the smaller banks are high-risk institutions.</description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 01 Jan 2020 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/10419/215659</guid>
      <dc:date>2020-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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      <title>The Middle-Income Trap 2.0: The Increasing Role of Human Capital in the Age of Automation and Implications for Developing Asia</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/215657</link>
      <description>Title: The Middle-Income Trap 2.0: The Increasing Role of Human Capital in the Age of Automation and Implications for Developing Asia
Authors: Glawe, Linda; Wagner, Helmut
Abstract: We modify the concept of the middle-income trap (MIT) against the background of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the (future) challenges of automation (creating the concept of the "MIT 2.0") and discuss the implications for developing Asia. In particular, we analyze the impacts of automation, artificial intelligence, and digitalization on the growth drivers of emerging market economies and the MIT mechanism. Our findings suggest that improving human capital accumulation, particularly the upgrading of skills needed with the rapid advance of automation, will be key success factors for overcoming the MIT 2.0.</description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 01 Jan 2020 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/10419/215657</guid>
      <dc:date>2020-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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    <item>
      <title>The effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China: A structural change perspective</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/215643</link>
      <description>Title: The effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China: A structural change perspective
Authors: Murach, Michael; Wagner, Helmut
Abstract: We study the effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China and its sectors (agriculture, industry, and services) in terms of real GDP growth using several small dimensional VAR models with Cholesky identification for the period 1996--2014. We show that China - in particular its industrial sector - is susceptible to shocks, which can be related to a trade channel, a financial channel, and a confidence channel of business cycle transmission from major trading partner countries to the Chinese economy. We extend the previous literature by explicitly focusing on response of the Chinese economy at the sectoral level and investigating the presence of confidence channels by analyzing the reaction in Chinese business and consumer confidence. If interpreted from the perspective of ongoing structural change and rebalancing in China, our findings can be interpreted as the result of a still very dominant industrial sector, and a previously export- and investment-driven growth model. Tertiarization in China could be one way of increasing the economy's future resilience to external shocks. However, the future structure of both the industrial and service sectors may be very decisive.</description>
      <pubDate>Tue, 01 Jan 2019 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/10419/215643</guid>
      <dc:date>2019-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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