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    <title>EconStor Collection:</title>
    <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/209412</link>
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    <pubDate>Wed, 29 Apr 2026 20:33:21 GMT</pubDate>
    <dc:date>2026-04-29T20:33:21Z</dc:date>
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      <title>World Economy in Spring 2026: Middle East Conflict Hampers Economic Activity</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/339638</link>
      <description>Title: World Economy in Spring 2026: Middle East Conflict Hampers Economic Activity
Authors: Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Kooths, Stefan; Krohn, Johanna; Liu, Wan-Hsin; Reents, Jan
Abstract: The world economy remained robust in 2025 despite the strains caused by the trade conflicts and the resulting increased uncertainty and entered the new year with decent momentum. However, the war with Iran now threatens to severely disrupt energy supplies, with potentially serious consequences for economic activity. It is, however, currently widely expected that production and transport of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf will return to normal levels relatively soon. In this case, which also forms the basis of our forecast, the effects would not be substantial and would be limited to a slight dampening of global production and a temporary rise in inflation. We therefore expect the global economy to remain on an upward trend, buoyed by strong impetus for trade and investment from the boom in AI technology. Monetary policy has been significantly loosened worldwide over the past year and is now supporting the economy in most countries. In addition, a number of countries are providing stimulus through fiscal policy. While the economic outlook in China remains clouded, the expansion in the United States should remain robust. In Europe, the gradual economic recovery is likely to continue from the second half of this year onwards, following a few months of slowdown caused by high energy prices. All in all, and unchanged from our forecast of last December, we expect global output - measured on the basis of purchasing power parities - to grow by 3.1 percent this year and 3.2 percent next year. However, given the uncertainty surrounding the developments in the Middle East, there is a significant risk of a considerable slowdown in the global economy.</description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
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      <dc:date>2026-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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      <title>German Economy in Spring 2025: Fiscal policy turns up the heat</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/319704</link>
      <description>Title: German Economy in Spring 2025: Fiscal policy turns up the heat
Authors: Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Groll, Dominik; Hoffmann, Timo; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Krohn, Johanna; Reents, Jan; Schröder, Christian
Abstract: Economic momentum will remain weak for the time being. There are few signs of a significant economic upswing. In any case, the German economy suffers mainly from structural problems that are unlikely to abate in the short term. If the US administration raises tariffs on German imports, as assumed in this forecast, this will further dampen GDP. The uncertainty caused by erratic US trade policy alone is likely to have a negative impact. At the same time, the German export industry has already become noticeably less competitive and has lost market share in recent years. Our forecast for next year assumes that some of the plans agreed in the initial negotiations between the political parties CDU and SPD will be implemented and that fiscal policy will be much more expansionary. Against this background, we have revised our forecast upwards and expect GDP to grow by 1.5 percent in 2026 (December forecast: 0.9 percent). In the current year, GDP will stagnate (December forecast: 0.0 percent). Investment is expected to bottom out after four consecutive years of decline and start growing again in 2026. The reasons behind this are a less restrictive monetary policy, an improving economic environment, and an increase in public investment. Employment is expected to pick up again next year after falling this year. However, demographic change will increasingly limit the scope for higher employment. The budget deficit is expected to rise to 3.4 percent of GDP in 2026, after falling to 2.4 percent this year (2024: 2.8 percent). The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to increase from 63.3 percent in 2024 to 65.4 percent in 2026. The impact of a more expansionary fiscal policy on debt levels will only become increasingly apparent in the years thereafter.</description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
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      <dc:date>2025-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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      <title>German Economy in Summer 2025: Signs of recovery as economy bottoms out</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/320471</link>
      <description>Title: German Economy in Summer 2025: Signs of recovery as economy bottoms out
Authors: Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Groll, Dominik; Hoffmann, Timo; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Schröder, Christian
Abstract: The German economy is showing signs of recovery. GDP increased considerably at the start of the year, and businesses are feeling more optimistic about the future. However, economic momentum is likely to remain subdued for the time being, partly due to the negative impact of U.S. trade policy. In addition to the negative effects of higher tariffs, the impact of front-running exports to the United States- which contributed to the strong start to the year-will also be felt over the next few quarters. The pace of expansion will pick up noticeably in the coming year, as the greater fiscal leeway of the new German government comes into play. We assume that the expansionary fiscal policy will increase the GDP growth rate by 0.8 percentage points in 2026, while higher U.S. tariffs are expected to dampen growth in sum by 0.3 percentage points this and next year. Against this backdrop, we expect GDP growth rates of 0.3 percent this year (spring forecast: 0.0 percent) and 1.6 percent in 2026 (spring forecast: 1.5 percent), which is slightly higher than our previous forecast. In addition to U.S. trade policy, German exporters are suffering from a significant loss in competitiveness. Inflation is expected to decline to 1.6 percent in 2026, primarily due to lower energy prices, down from 2.2 percent this year. Given rising incomes, private consumption is expected to increase notably this year and next year. Investment is set to bottom out after declining for the past three years. More favorable financing conditions and, in 2026, expansionary fiscal policy will contribute to the recovery of investment. As the economy recovers, the labor market is expected to overcome its current weakness, and unemployment will decline again next year. The government's budget deficit is expected to rise to 3.5 percent of GDP in 2026. A decrease to 2.1 percent is expected for the current year (2024: 2.7 percent).</description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
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      <dc:date>2025-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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      <title>World Economy in Spring 2025: More frictions, higher risks</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/319703</link>
      <description>Title: World Economy in Spring 2025: More frictions, higher risks
Authors: Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Kooths, Stefan; Liu, Wan-Hsin; Reents, Jan
Abstract: The global economy is already experiencing a period of moderate economic momentum. Now, it is also exposed to additional challenges, in particular a substantial increase in economic policy uncertainty. This is mainly due to the actions and announcements of the new U.S. administration. On the one hand, they threaten to severely dampen global trade and disrupt established value chains; on the other hand, they have the potential to destabilize the U.S. economy. This forecast is based on the assumption that additional tariffs on imports into the United States will be imposed at a substantial level. Monetary policy will be eased less than previously anticipated. At the same time, however, fiscal policy is providing stronger impulses, not least because defense spending in many countries is being significantly expanded in light of the changing geopolitical landscape. All in all, we expect a even more modest expansion of the global economy. While momentum in the United States is slowing noticeably and China's economy is struggling to gain traction, despite significant economic policy measures, due to dimmer export prospects, economic activity in Europe is likely improve slightly. Overall, as in our December forecast, we expect global output-measured on a purchasing power parity basis-to increase by 3.1 percent this year. For 2026, we anticipate an expansion of 3.0 percent (December: 3.1 percent). The recent decline in inflation has come to a halt, mainly because energy prices no longer declined in year-on-year comparison and price pressures in the service sector remained persistent. The expected further decline toward the 2 percent target is likely to occur only gradually, and there remains a risk that monetary policy will remain restrictive for longer than currently anticipated.</description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/10419/319703</guid>
      <dc:date>2025-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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