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    <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/103153</link>
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    <pubDate>Tue, 28 Apr 2026 16:54:03 GMT</pubDate>
    <dc:date>2026-04-28T16:54:03Z</dc:date>
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      <title>Sharks and minnows in a shoal of words: Measuring latent ideological positions of German economic research institutes based on text mining techniques</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/245951</link>
      <description>Title: Sharks and minnows in a shoal of words: Measuring latent ideological positions of German economic research institutes based on text mining techniques
Authors: Diaf, Sami; Döpke, Jörg; Fritsche, Ulrich; Rockenbach, Ida
Abstract: Using corpora of business cycle report sections dealing with monetary and fiscal policy issues from 1999 to 2017 and using methods of unsupervised text scaling (Slapin and Proksch, 2008; Lauderdale and Herzog, 2016), namely Wordfish and Wordshoal we scale the institutions' theoretical/ideological position over debates. The results are in line with the findings from descriptive textual analysis. For monetary policy, we observe a strong but short-lived consensus in debate-specific positions at the height of the financial crisis in 2008 and a larger polarization after 2008 compared to the sample period before. For the fiscal policy textual corpus, the polarization was similarly high before and after the crisis. For both policy areas, the institutions DIW Berlin and IfW Kiel define the outer bounds of the observed spectrum of latent ideological positions.</description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 01 Jan 2020 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
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      <dc:date>2020-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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    <item>
      <title>Oil price shocks and protest: Can shadow economy mitigate?</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/223356</link>
      <description>Title: Oil price shocks and protest: Can shadow economy mitigate?
Authors: Ishak, Phoebe W.; Fritsche, Ulrich
Abstract: In this paper, we study the impact of oil price shocks on the incidence of protest over the period 1991-2015. Our results indicate that negative oil price shocks are followed by an uptick in the number of protests and that a higher initial size of the shadow economy allows to mitigate the negative consequences of low oil prices on the likelihood of protest. To explain these results, we show that negative oil price shocks lead to a significant increase in the size of the shadow economy in highly oil dependent countries and that this countercyclical behavior is largely due to oil-price-driven income shocks. In our estimations, a decrease in the GDP per capita by one percentage point increases the shadow economy by 0.54 percentage points. This suggest that the shadow economy's capacity to absorb persistent oil price fluctuations without provoking political unrest, should regard it as a mitigation tool rather than an economic burden.</description>
      <pubDate>Tue, 01 Jan 2019 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/10419/223356</guid>
      <dc:date>2019-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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      <title>Predictability of Euro area revisions</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/194018</link>
      <description>Title: Predictability of Euro area revisions
Authors: Glass, Katharina
Abstract: This study investigates the predictability of revisions to Euro-area major macroeconomic variables using real-time data from the European Central Bank. The application of nonparametric and semiparametric tests enables robust conclusions about the predictability of revisions. Though there is wide evidence of the nonnormality of the distribution function of revision errors, this is the first application of the nonparametric approach to examine revisions. Moreover, to gain robustness, this study performs tests for parameter instability, and includes structural breaks explicitly in the predictability evaluation. The results underline the predictability of Euro area key macroeconomic revisions. Revisions are inefficient and biased, and revision errors are not optimal forecast errors.</description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/10419/194018</guid>
      <dc:date>2018-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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      <title>Has macroeconomic forecasting changed after the Great Recession? Panel-based evidence on accuracy and forecaster behaviour from Germany</title>
      <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/194020</link>
      <description>Title: Has macroeconomic forecasting changed after the Great Recession? Panel-based evidence on accuracy and forecaster behaviour from Germany
Authors: Döpke, Jörg; Fritsche, Ulrich; Müller, Karsten
Abstract: Based on a panel of annual data for 17 growth and inflation forecasts from 14 institutions for Germany, we analyse forecast accuracy for the periods before and after the Great Recession, including measures of directional change accuracy based on Receiver Operating Curves (ROC).We find only small differences on forecast accuracy between both time periods. We test whether the conditions for forecast rationality hold in both time periods. We document an increased crosssection variance of forecasts and a changed correlation between inflation and growth forecast errors after the crisis, which might hint to a changed forecaster behaviour. This is also supported by estimated loss functions before and after the crisis, which suggest a stronger incentive to avoid overestimations (growth) and underestimations (inflation) after the crisis. Estimating loss functions for a 10-year rolling window also reveal shifts in the level and direction of loss asymmetry and strengthens the impression of a changed forecaster behaviour after the Great Recession.</description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/10419/194020</guid>
      <dc:date>2018-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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