https://hdl.handle.net/10419/10 Mon, 14 Sep 2026 01:19:07 GMT 2026-09-14T01:19:07Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/338916 Title: Review of proxy vector autoregressive analysis Authors: Bruns, Martin; Lütkepohl, Helmut Abstract: In structural vector autoregressive analysis it has become quite popular to identify some structural shocks of interest by external instruments or proxies. This study points out a range of areas where such proxies have been used and sketches the way the proxies have been constructed. It reviews identification and estimation methods that have been considered in this context. Moreover, it points out some features such as heteroskedasticity, nonfundamentalness of the shocks and violations of the standard assumptions for proxies that may result in complications. Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/10419/338916 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/338911 Title: Disparate treatment of the Irish in 19th century English courtrooms Authors: Bindler, Anna; Hjalmarsson, Randi; Machin, Stephen; Rubio-Ramos, Melissa Abstract: This paper studies how and why anti-Irish sentiment in 19th century England spills over onto jury decisions at London's Old Bailey Central Criminal Court. We classify the (perceived) ethnicity of courtroom participants according to whether they have distinctly Irish or English surnames based on place of birth in the 1881 census. Irish-named defendants have significantly worse outcomes: juries are 3% more likely to convict Irish-named defendants and 16% less likely to recommend mercy in sentencing. Sentencing gaps are larger for violent crimes and robust to different classifications of surname Irishness, as well as to the inclusion of case and defendant controls. We argue that these findings are unlikely to be driven by correlated unobservable case or trial characteristics (like defense quality). Rather, we provide two pieces of evidence consistent with the gaps being driven by animus towards those perceived to be Irish. First, taking advantage of exogenous variation in expected punishment driven by the abolition of capital punishment, we show that juries react differentially to shifts in extraneous factors when the defendant is Irish- versus English-named. Second, these gaps are not limited to Irish- named defendants but also seen for other courtroom participants - namely Irish-named victims. Finally, we trace out the longer run evolution of these gaps throughout the 1800s: they first emerge during the capital punishment reform period, widen during the mid-century Irish Potato Famine induced migration to London, and thereafter remain primarily stable. Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/10419/338911 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/338917 Title: Designing hedging instruments for locational price risks: Lessons from North American Financial Transmission Rights Authors: Stolle, Leon; Boeschemeier, Jonas; Hobbs, Benjamin Field; Neuhoff, Karsten Abstract: Locational marginal pricing (LMP) provides efficient locational dispatch and investment signals but requires a complementary congestion hedging instrument to function effectively. This paper investigates how exposure to locational price differences is managed in North American nodal electricity markets through the implementation of Financial Transmission Rights (FTRs). Drawing on insights from 15 industry experts directly involved across all major North American electricity markets, we consolidate first-hand perspectives that reveal the practical complexities of FTR design and implementation. While most interviewees view FTRs positively, their experiences uncover multiple nuanced challenges to successfully design locational hedging instruments, which are often overlooked in the academic literature. As FTR design depends on market characteristics, we apply the findings to the European electricity market and discuss implications for a possible implementation of LMP in Europe. Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/10419/338917 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/338919 Title: Fundamentally reforming the DI system: Evidence from Germany Authors: Cao, Yaming; Fischer-Weckemann, Björn; Geyer, Johannes; Ziebarth, Nicolas R. Abstract: In 2001, Germany abolished public occupational disability insurance (ODI)-the second tier of its public DI system-for cohorts born after 1960. Using administrative data, we first document that, in the long run, overall DI inflows declined by roughly one-third. Second, using representative survey data, we document at best modest ODI insurance take-up responses in the private individual, risk-rated market, which lacks guaranteed issue. Third, an equilibrium model incorporating interactions between the public safety net, the first-tier public DI, and the private market reveals that coverage denials and weak insurance demand, driven by complementary social insurance, can explain the modest private ODI take-up response. Coverage gradients by income and health are thus substantial. Finally, counterfactual simulations highlight the limited scope of incremental reforms. Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/10419/338919 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z