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    <dc:date>2026-04-28T11:39:17Z</dc:date>
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  <item rdf:about="https://hdl.handle.net/10419/336499">
    <title>Extrapolators and contrarians: Forecast bias and individual investor stock trading</title>
    <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/336499</link>
    <description>Title: Extrapolators and contrarians: Forecast bias and individual investor stock trading
Authors: Andersen, Steffen; Dimmock, Stephen G.; Nielsen, Kasper M.; Peijnenburg, Kim
Abstract: We test whether forecast bias affects individual investors' stock trading by combining bias measures from laboratory experiments with administrative trade data. Forecast bias is positively associated with past excess returns of purchased stocks: Compared to contrarians, extrapolators purchase stocks with higher past returns. Forecast bias is negatively associated with capital gains of sold stocks. Forecast bias also explains investor heterogeneity in the relation between market returns and net flows. Taken together, forecast bias provides a unifying mechanism through which different salient performance measures - past stock returns, capital gains, and past market returns - shape corresponding purchase, sale, and net flow decisions.</description>
    <dc:date>2026-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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  <item rdf:about="https://hdl.handle.net/10419/336498">
    <title>Output gap assessment through Danmarks Nationalbank's production function framework</title>
    <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/336498</link>
    <description>Title: Output gap assessment through Danmarks Nationalbank's production function framework
Authors: Bess, Mikkel; Bock, Theodor Justus; Weissert, Christoffer Jessen
Abstract: The output gap is a key guide for economic policymaking and analysis. It is often used to quantify inflationary pressures and thus plays a central role in Danmarks Nationalbank's assessment of the state of the Danish economy. This paper refines Danmarks Nationalbank's existing production function framework - which decomposes total production into labour, capital and a Solow residual - presented in Andersen and Rasmussen (2011) and Danielsen, Jørgensen and Jensen (2017) in several ways. First, we implement Bayesian estimation techniques rather than the frequentist maximum-likelihood estimation used previously. Second, we enhance each of the component sub-models for potential labour force participation, unemployment and the Solow residual. As a robustness check, we separate foreign labour from domestic labour inputs in our production function, allowing for a more nuanced analysis of labour-market dynamics, and conclude that our estimate of the output gap is robust towards that nuance. According to the model estimates, potential output - defined as the level of output the economy would achieve if prices and wages had fully adjusted to current economic conditions - has picked up in recent years. This increase is driven both by a larger labour force and a higher Solow residual, which captures, for example, total factor productivity and merchanting and processing activities by Danish companies.</description>
    <dc:date>2026-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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  <item rdf:about="https://hdl.handle.net/10419/310442">
    <title>Consumer durables, monetary policy, and the green transition</title>
    <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/310442</link>
    <description>Title: Consumer durables, monetary policy, and the green transition
Authors: Dietrich, Alexander M.; Müller, Gernot J.; Leitenbacher, Lukas
Abstract: As part of the green transition, the European cap-and-trade scheme for CO2 emissions will be extended to cover consumer durables. We propose a New Keynesian model that features both, "brown" and "green" durable goods and show that if monetary policy follows a business-as-usual approach, the green transition will be inflationary, with headline inflation increasing by about 20 basis points over a fouryear transition period. Monetary policy faces a tradeoff: pursuing a strict inflation target will slow the green transition because green durable purchases are especially sensitive to interest rates. We quantify this tradeoff as we contrast headline and core-inflation targeting.</description>
    <dc:date>2025-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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  <item rdf:about="https://hdl.handle.net/10419/322351">
    <title>Working from home and housing demand during the pandemic</title>
    <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/322351</link>
    <description>Title: Working from home and housing demand during the pandemic
Authors: Abildgren, Kim; Hviid, Simon Juul; Kuchler, Andreas
Abstract: We use rich microdata from Denmark to study the effects of increased remote working on housing demand and property prices during the pandemic. We find that the rise in remote working exerted upward pressure on housing demand, and consequently, property prices. The analysis shows that people who frequently worked from home were more likely to buy a home during the 2020-21 pandemic. There was also a tendency for younger people who frequently worked from home to buy larger homes than they had before the pandemic. We estimate that the increased tendency to work from home contributed to a rise in property prices by up to around 3-11 percentage points during the pandemic.</description>
    <dc:date>2025-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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