https://hdl.handle.net/10419/270 Yale University, Economic Growth Center (EGC) 2026-10-12T18:19:16Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/324807 Title: Value creation and value capture in Indian garment sector bargaining Authors: Morton, Russell Abstract: This paper examines creation and distribution of surplus from global value chains (GVCs) in low- and middle-income country (LMIC) domestic supply chains. While GVC participation can enhance growth and productivity, low prices paid to small input suppliers raise concerns that gains from GVC participation accrue to the large exporters (the buyers). Supply-chain transactions often occur in bargained agreements with non-price terms that increase small supplier surplus, such as quantity stability and other insurance-like terms. Therefore, low input prices reflect both buyers' share of surplus generated by non-price terms and buyer capture. I enrich a Nash bargaining model to study how both i) value creation through insurance-like agreement terms that mitigate spot market frictions and ii) value capture from buyers threatening to replace external suppliers with in-house production affect prices paid to small, risk-averse suppliers. Using novel transaction data from an Indian garment manufacturer and its nearly 500 fabric suppliers, I estimate a structural model to decompose discounts into value creation and capture. Results illustrate that discounts reflect value creation rather than buyer capture; difference-in-differences estimates yield consistent findings. Counterfactual analyses highlight that increasing buyer competition has limited effects on prices paid to small risk-averse suppliers, whereas introducing profit insurance substantially increases prices they receive. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/324806 Title: From delay to payday: Easing bureaucrat access to implementation information strengthens social protection delivery Authors: Dodge, Eric; Neggers, Yusuf; Pande, Rohini; Moore, Charity Troyer Abstract: Poor implementation frequently impedes social protection delivery in low-state-capacity settings. In such environments, reducing managers' information acquisition costs may improve their grasp of frontline issues and program performance. However, in the presence of managerial rent-seeking, increasing the principal's information may be key, and doing so just for managers can backfire. To assess this trade-off and implications for program performance, we collaborated with two Indian states to randomly vary bureaucrat access to PayDash, a digital platform for real-time tracking of worker payment processing for the national rural workfare program. In treated districts, PayDash expedited bureaucrat processing of workfare payments by 17%, and increased available worksites and participating household work days by 23% and 10%, respectively. Work provision rose relatively more during the agricultural lean season. PayDash has the same impact when offered to principals as to managers, and no further gains when offered to both, indicating that manager effort to acquire information constrains implementation. Consistent with information allowing principals to better condition performance incentives on managerial effort, PayDash for principals reduced manager posting transfers by 24%. PayDash strengthened state capacity at a considerably lower cost than hiring staff, while benefiting rural Indians by more than 170 times the costs. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/324808 Title: Gene x environment interactions: Polygenic scores and the impact of a early childhood intervention in Colombia Authors: Attanasio, Orazio P.; Conti, Gabriella; Jervis, Pamela; Meghir, Costas; Okbay, Aysu Abstract: We evaluate impacts heterogeneity of an Early Childhood Intervention, with respect to the Educational Attainment Polygenic Score (EA4 PGS) constructed from DNA data based on GWAS weights from a European population. We find that the EA4 PGS is predictive of several measures of child development, mother's IQ and, to some extent, educational attainment. We also show that the impacts of the intervention are significantly greater in children with low PGS, to the point that the intervention eliminates the initial genetic disadvantage. Lastly, we find that children with high PGS attract more parental stimulation; however, the latter increases more strongly in children with low PGS. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/324809 Title: Intergenerational mobility in Ottoman Istanbul: Evidence from court records Authors: Coşgel, Metin Murat; Espín-Sánchez, José-Antonio; Özer, Emre Abstract: We use data from the Istanbul court registers spanning from the 16th-19th centuries to establish, for the first time, long-term trends in intergenerational mobility in a major premodern city. The dataset contains information on over 270,000 individuals who appeared in court in various roles, including litigants, witnesses, and representatives. Crucially, it records the honorific titles (if any) of individuals and their fathers, which we use as measures for socioeconomic status. Our goal is to trace long-term changes in Istanbul's social structure, analyze the relationship between fathers' and sons' titles to assess shifts in intergenerational mobility, and determine whether these shifts reflect primarily horizontal movements within social strata or also include greater mobility across class boundaries. We find that the share of titled individuals followed a non-monotonic but ultimately upward trajectory between the sixteenth and nineteenth centuries. During the same period, the intergenerational transmission of titles declined, indicating increased mobility. However, this mobility was largely confined within the elite strata, suggesting a consolidation of power and status among the upper classes rather than a broad opening of the social hierarchy. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z