https://hdl.handle.net/10419/264209 2026-10-08T20:07:55Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/336916 Title: External debt and unemployment nexus: Evidence from West Africa Authors: Udoh, Elijah Abasifreke P.; Onah, Anthony O. Abstract: This study examines the dynamic relationship between external debt and unemployment in West Africa, employing the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (P-ARDL) method with the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator. Annual data from 16 West African countries (1991-2021) were analysed. The results reveal a critical duality where external debt has a positive and marginally significant short-run impact on unemployment, but no statistically significant long-run relationship. This indicates that while debt accumulation may create immediate labour market pressures, its long-term effect on structural unemployment is conditional on institutional factors and debt utilisation efficiency. Control variables show inflation has a significant negative long-run relationship with unemployment, while GDP growth shows a positive long- run association, suggesting patterns of "jobless growth" in the region. The findings imply that West African governments have not consistently harnessed external borrowing for sustainable job creation. We recommend institutional reforms to explicitly link debt governance to employment outcomes, strategic investment in labour-intensive sectors, and enhanced regional coordination to transform external debt into a catalyst for inclusive growth. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/336915 Title: Investigating the determinants of regional value chains in African countries: A gravity model analysis Authors: Oyelami, Lukman Oyeyinka; Odularu, Gbadebo; Dunmade, Emmanuel O. Abstract: This study investigates the determinants of regional value chains (RVCs) in African countries using gravity model analysis. This approach allows for bilateral characteristics of the gravity model and gives room for introducing policy variables in the augmented version. To that effect, RVCs were modelled as a dependent variable in our estimation, and apart from the gravity variables, relevant policy and non-policy variables based on guidance from the literature were introduced to provide policy directions to government and non-government actors in policy space towards efforts to promote RVCs participation on the continent. The results from our model have demonstrated the importance of gravity variables such as distance and colonial experience as crucial factors for RVC participation. However, the place of policy variables such as tariffs, industrialisation, accession to regional trade agreements and strategic FDI inflows cannot be overemphasised. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/336824 Title: A Bayesian estimation of monetary policy effects on macroeconomic dynamics in Sierra Leone: A new Keynesian DSGE approach Authors: Daboh, Foday; Abraham Jackson, Emerson; Tamuke, Edmund Abstract: This paper conducts a Bayesian assessment of a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model in the context of Sierra Leone's economy by l utilising quarterly data from 2011 to 2022. It examines how monetary policy, demand shocks, and cost-push shocks affect selected macroeconomic variables, including production, inflation, and the policy interest rate. The analysis highlights the crucial role of monetary policy in managing demand-induced inflation; however, it is comparatively less successful in mitigating inflation resulting from cost-push shocks, such as commodity price volatility. The research found that demand shocks result in a temporary rise in output and inflation, followed by policy tightening. Conversely, cost-push shocks induce persistent inflationary pressures, pushing the economy into recession, characterised by declines in output. The results highlight the importance of macroeconomic policy coordination that amalgamates effective monetary policies with structural changes, particularly given Sierra Leone's vulnerability to exogenous shocks. This paper enhances the comprehension of DSGE models relevant to low-income countries, providing the Bank of Sierra Leone and similar institutions with significant insights into complex economic dynamics. Policy recommendations include enhancing fiscal-monetary coordination, investing in supply-side diversification, and strengthening institutional credibility to build resilience against macroeconomic shocks. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/339338 Title: Fiscal deficit and inflation dynamics in the WAMZ Authors: Olowofeso, Olorunsola E.; Wadda, Ebrima N.; Adedeji, Kayode E.; Loua, Joachim; Collins, John M. Abstract: The West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)'s economy has faced persistent fiscal deficits over the years, and this has affected other macroeconomic indicators like inflation. This study empirically examines the effect of fiscal deficit on inflation dynamics in the WAMZ. It employs the Panel Smooth Threshold Regression model, using annual data spanning from 2002 to 2023. The findings revealed a nonlinear relationship between inflation and fiscal deficit in the WAMZ, with two distinct regimes. These regimes comprise a linear part and a nonlinear part, with the fiscal deficit as the threshold variable alongside key inflation drivers. The estimation of the model coefficients smoothly switches from linear to nonlinear forms, with an optimal fiscal deficit threshold of 6.16 percent per annum in the Zone. Below this threshold, the fiscal deficit in WAMZ member states mitigates significant welfare losses. However, above this threshold, its coefficient becomes positive and statistically significant at the 5 percent level of significance, suggesting that exceeding this level of deficit funding would negatively affect the inflation rate, leading to potential welfare losses due to the inflation tax. The study recommends a fiscal strategy based on a threshold of 6.16 percent for fiscal deficit in the Zone to prevent the adverse effects of inflation. Additionally, the study recommends fiscal consolidation, which will help to rein in external imbalances and contain the increase in debt related to currency depreciation. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z