https://hdl.handle.net/10419/210378 2026-10-23T01:14:53Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/280822 Title: Children and the gender earnings gap: Evidence for Australia Authors: Bahar, Elif; Bradshaw, Natasha; Deutscher, Nathan; Montaigne, Maxine Abstract: This paper uses an event study approach to estimate the impact of children on the gender earnings gap in Australia. We use the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey to show the arrival of children has a large and persistent impact on the gender earnings gap, reducing female earnings by 55 per cent, on average, in the 5 years following parenthood. We further show, using personal income tax data collected by the Australian Tax Office (ATO), that this gap improves only slightly but remains high in the 10 years following the arrival of children. We attribute the gap in earnings to lower participation rates and reduced working hours amongst mothers. Although the decline in earnings for women is very similar regardless of their breadwinner status in the household pre-children, women with greater access to workplace flexibility are more likely to remain employed after having children. 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/280824 Title: Modelling fiscal policy with OLGA Treasury's OverLapping Generations model of the Australian economy Authors: Cai, Yiyong; Gustafsson, Linus; Kouparitsas, Michael A.; Smith, Jazmine; Zhang, Rachel Abstract: To meet the needs of a broad set of internal and external stakeholders now and into the future the Australian Treasury maintains a significant macroeconomic modelling capability. Treasury's current inhouse capability is similar to that of the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT). These agencies have a suite of macroeconomic models to quantify the general equilibrium effects of policy on economic activity, household welfare and public finances. In this paper we introduce one of the models in that suite, Treasury's overlapping generations model of the Australian economy (hereafter OLGA). OLGA has been developed by economists in Treasury's Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy Division to support Treasury's counterfactual fiscal policy analysis. OLGA is a small open economy variant of the well-known lifecycle model developed by Auerbach and Kotlikoff (1987). It has been calibrated to Australian data and policy settings. 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/280823 Title: Modelling industry specific policy with TIM: Treasury's multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model of the Australian economy Authors: Carlton, Freya; Gustafsson, Linus; Hinson, Melissa; Jaensch, Jack; Kouparitsas, Michael A.; Peat, Niall; Quach, Ken; Wende, Sebastian; Womack, Phillipp Abstract: The Australian economy is constantly affected by technological, demand and policy shocks from home and abroad. The opportunities and challenges presented by these shocks create demand for government advice on the likely effects on households, firms and the Australian economy, and in turn appropriate policy responses. Treasury has developed a multisector dynamic generally equilibrium model to meet this need - the Treasury Industry Model (TIM). As a general equilibrium model, TIM captures the economy's interconnectedness and rich industry detail, enabling the net effects of policy or other exogenous changes to the economy to be assessed. TIM extends previous Australian models by incorporating forward-looking agents that are able to respond rationally to policy and technological changes, a well-defined balanced growth path defined endogenously, and a model-consistent welfare measure. These features, combined with TIM's significant production and industry detail, position the model well for informing advice on a range of industry- and trade-related policy questions. 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/280821 Title: Did labour market concentration lower wages growth pre-COVID? Authors: Hambur, Jonathan Abstract: Wages growth in Australia was lower than expected prior to COVID-19 based on historical determinants. One possible explanation for this is that employment had become more concentrated among a small number of large employers. This reduced outside options for workers and lowered their bargaining power and wages. This paper examines concentration in Australian labour markets and its impacts on wages using a large and representative database derived from administrative tax data. Labour markets have not, on average, become more concentrated over time. However, the impact of any given level of concentration has increased since the 2010s. This may help explain surprisingly low wages growth pre-COVID, despite labour market concentration having remained constant. Simple back-of-the-envelope estimates suggest that the greater impact of concentration may have lowered wages by a little under 1 per cent on average between 2011 and 2015. Declining firm entry and dynamism appear to have contributed to the increased impact of concentration, and lower wages growth, by lowering competition for labour among incumbent firms. Declining union coverage and occupational mobility may also have played a role, but declining firm entry appears to have been the main driver. 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z