https://hdl.handle.net/10419/203331 2026-10-19T10:07:47Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/340037 Title: Religious behaviour, labour supply, and social conformity: Evidence from a ban on Muslim religious veiling Authors: Devereux, Kevin; Long, Blair; Samahita, Margaret Abstract: In 2019 Canada's second-largest province introduced a selective ban on religious clothing in the public service as part of a broader effort to promote secularism in the public sphere. Using novel survey data we find evidence of spillovers onto labour force participation and religious expression among those outside the public service. We study the largest legally targeted group: Muslim women. Conducting a difference-in-difference analysis comparing Muslim women in Quebec to those in the rest of Canada, we find a relative reduction in the most liminal religious behaviour - wearing a veil in public - among both Canadian-born Muslim women and immigrants. We also find a relative increase in labour force participation among Canadian-born Muslim women, but not among immigrants. We corroborate the employment results using high quality administrative tax records, and document an anticipation effect: Muslim women sort into the targeted occupations in the year before implementation. The results are consistent with social norm signaling influencing private religious behaviour and labour market outcomes. 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/338098 Title: When neighbours stop knocking: The impact of Canada's 2025 tourism decline on U.S. local labour markets Authors: Kurmann, André; Lalé, Etienne; Martin, Julien Abstract: We provide the first systematic evidence on the labor market consequences of the 25% decline in Canadian visits to the United States in 2025. We combine smartphone foot-traffic data measuring Canadian visitor presence at the ZIP code × industry level with real-time establishment-level employment records. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that establishments in highly exposed markets experienced employment declines of about 6%, implying a loss of 13,900 to 42,100 jobs. These effects are spatially concentrated and should be interpreted as lower bounds, as our analysis focuses on small and medium establishments and abstracts from spillover effects. 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/342490 Title: Predicting labour force types Authors: Castro, Rui; Kim, Jiyoung; Lange, Fabian; Larivière, Jérôme; Poschke, Markus Abstract: A small group of people accounts for a large majority of flows between labor market states and of spells in un- and non-employment. In this paper, we ask whether it is possible to identify those weakly attached to the labor market during their prime working-age years using information available early in their lives. First, we use information on labor force transitions between ages 30 and 50 contained in the long panel provided by the NLSY79 to identify those weakly connected to the labor market during their prime age. To do so, we use k-means clustering on moments describing observed spells in employment, unemployment, and non-employment between 30 and 50. This points to a group of less attached individuals who are disproportionally female, less educated, and in poor health. In a second step we predict, using information collected at various points before age 30 - which we do not use in clustering - whether individuals will turn out to belong to the weakly attached type in their prime age. We find that information from ages 22 to 29 allows predicting membership of the low-attachment group with high precision. Particularly influential is information on early labor market experiences and health. The fact that we can predict weak and strong labor market attachment during prime working age using variables observed in individuals' twenties suggests the presence of persistent heterogeneity that shapes labor market experiences throughout the life cycle. 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/342474 Title: Dynamic of labour market concentration: Trajectory of immigrants in Canada Authors: Diallo, Yaya; Djolaud, Guy Arnold 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z