https://hdl.handle.net/10419/202098 2026-09-15T02:15:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/322094 Title: Statistical imputation and validation of consumption microdata for EUROMOD Authors: Dreoni, Ilda; Serruys, Hannes; Manso, Luis; Tudó-Ramírez, José; Amores, Antonio F. Abstract: Consumption taxes are a crucial revenue source for EU Member States, yet they also potentially have non-negligible impact on income distribution. The EU's tax-benefit microsimulation model, EUROMOD, has recently been extended to simulate consumption taxes (CT) across all 27 EU countries allowing researchers and practitioners to examine carefully their design and assess trade-offs. The CT simulation uses consumption patterns derived from Household Budget Survey (HBS) microdata, which are imputed into EUROMOD's input data using the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) microdata which contains detailed socio-demographic and socio-economic information. The imputation process employs a statistical matching procedure that joins HBS (the donor survey) with EU-SILC (the recipient survey) using a predictive mean matching method. Expenditure data are integrated into the recipient survey using a multi-stage procedure that involves the use of estimated probit and linear regression models combined with a distance-hot deck approach for the final observation mapping. This methodology offers enhanced results compared to traditional approaches such as only regression-based or distance-based. The imputation performance in distributional terms and the macro validation of the resulting datasets are thoroughly examined. We assess the impact of potential distortions from the statistical matching process by conducting a set of exploratory and comparative analyses, and also by using an administratively matched dataset for Czechia from 2019 to 2021. Our findings in this specific case indicate that, on average, the majority of imputed expenses are exactly the same when comparing the original HBS data with the matched SILC data that includes fitted expenditures. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/322067 Title: Bridging climate and social equity: Progressive carbon tax simulations for Belgium Authors: Bursens, Floore; De Poli, Silvia; Maier, Sofia; Verbist, Gerlinde Abstract: This paper explores the distributive impact of a hypothetical carbon tax on households' transport and energy consumption in Belgium. It focuses on the welfare effects across population groups and along the income distribution, as well as on the expected budgetary and environmental effects, accounting for consumer responses under a partial equilibrium microsimulation framework. Given the well-known regressive features of consumption taxes in general, and of energy- or carbon-related taxes in particular, this study evaluates various methods for making the carbon tax more progressive and assesses how these methods affect the overall distributional outcomes. We assess both the expected results as well as the feasibility of each of the tax design scenarios, considering the effect on household income and its distribution vis-a-vis the expected reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/335009 Title: The Corporate Income Tax gap: A European approach to measuring losses in corporate tax revenues Authors: Brun, Lidia; Speitmann, Raffael; Stasio, Andrzej Leszek; Stoehlker, Daniel Abstract: This paper examines the Corporate Income Tax (CIT) compliance gap, the difference between revenue due under full compliance and actual collections, across 23 EU Member States, Norway, and Iceland. Existing bottom-up and top-down estimation methods each face notable limitations: bottom-up approaches are data-intensive and hard to harmonise, while top-down methods depend on uncertain adjustments for undeclared activity and cannot adequately capture multinational profit shifting. An implementation of the IMF RA-GAP top-down method in Spain illustrates these challenges, revealing substantial data needs, conceptual mismatches between national accounts and tax data, and reliance on unverifiable assumptions. To address these issues, the Joint Research Centre proposes a simplified top-down methodology based on Eurostat s exhaustiveness adjustments. This approach is transparent, reproducible, and feasible with data already reported by Member States. Applying it across countries reveals large variation in CIT gaps ranging from below 3% in high-compliance jurisdictions to above 20 35% in others with an unweighted average gap of 10.9% (around EUR 38 billion in 2017). Sectoral patterns consistently show higher gaps in informal, cash-intensive industries and lower gaps in regulated sectors. The paper concludes that while no single method captures all dimensions of non-compliance, the proposed approach offers a practical tool for regular EU-wide monitoring. Its effectiveness depends on the timely and harmonised publication of exhaustiveness adjustment data to support consistent CIT gap estimation and policy analysis. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/335006 Title: Banks' tax disclosure, financial secrecy, and tax haven heterogeneity Authors: Eberhartinger, Eva; Speitmann, Raffael; Sureth-Sloane, Caren Abstract: This study investigates the impact of mandatory public country-by-country reporting (CbCR) on European banks' engagement in tax and regulatory havens characterized by financial secrecy. Employing a difference-in-differences approach, we find that following the introduction of CbCR, European banks reduced their number of tax haven subsidiaries by approximately one-third compared to insurers, which were exempt from the disclosure requirement. Further analysis reveals that this decline is primarily driven by withdrawals from economically insignificant "dot tax havens" and from countries that serve as both tax and regulatory havens. Additionally, we observe that banks with low exposure to reputational risk prior to the reform are more likely to reduce their presence in bank havens. These results reveal that public CbCR prompts withdrawals from low-tax locations but only under specific conditions. Public CbCR curtails tax haven presence when both financial secrecy and reputational concerns are at play, but on its own may not curb tax haven use. These insights contribute to ongoing tax policy debates by highlighting the limitations and conditional effectiveness of transparency-driven regulations. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z