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  <channel rdf:about="https://hdl.handle.net/10419/201535">
    <title>EconStor Community: Chair of Agricultural Policy, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Kiel</title>
    <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/201535</link>
    <description>Chair of Agricultural Policy, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Kiel</description>
    <items>
      <rdf:Seq>
        <rdf:li rdf:resource="https://hdl.handle.net/10419/229438" />
        <rdf:li rdf:resource="https://hdl.handle.net/10419/234256" />
        <rdf:li rdf:resource="https://hdl.handle.net/10419/235902" />
        <rdf:li rdf:resource="https://hdl.handle.net/10419/235896" />
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    </items>
    <dc:date>2026-04-29T10:57:25Z</dc:date>
  </channel>
  <item rdf:about="https://hdl.handle.net/10419/229438">
    <title>Parameter uncertainty in policy planning models: Using portfolio management methods to choose optimal policies under world market volatility</title>
    <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/229438</link>
    <description>Title: Parameter uncertainty in policy planning models: Using portfolio management methods to choose optimal policies under world market volatility
Authors: Mukashov, Askar
Abstract: This paper suggests using portfolio management methods in policy planning models as a practical tool for determining optimal policy under model parameter uncertainty. We suggest that in addition to calculating the standard policy return estimates, policy options should also be analyzed from the risk perspective by using metrics that inform the effect of parameter uncertainty on policy impact variation. We demonstrate the approach in a Computable General Equilibrium model that analyzes pro-poor agricultural value chains in Senegal under world market uncertainty. We show that prioritizing the rice sector is the most effective policy in terms of expected policy return, but this policy is also associated with the highest risk, leading to an increase in poverty under unfavorable yet realistic scenarios. Much like diversified portfolios in finance, mixed policies that assume the rice sector's promotion combined with other sectors such as milk, vegetables, oilseeds, or fishery, can offer risk reduction at the cost of reduced expected policy return.</description>
    <dc:date>2021-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
  </item>
  <item rdf:about="https://hdl.handle.net/10419/234256">
    <title>Metamodeling: A useful tool for applying innovative simulation techniques in agricultural economics</title>
    <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/234256</link>
    <description>Title: Metamodeling: A useful tool for applying innovative simulation techniques in agricultural economics
Authors: Jin, Ding
Abstract: Computational simulation models are widely used in the field of agricultural economics for a variety of tasks, particularly for evidence-based policy analysis. Despite the substantial and continuing growth of computing power and speed, the growing complexity together with the implicit nature of the simulation models, on the one hand, still lead to high computational costs in applying the models along with great difficulties in the parameter specification where data availability and parametrization constraints for empirical calibration problems are notably challenging. On the other hand, they also limit the use of simulation models in many other aspects such as integration into other research frameworks like policy optimization coupled with uncertainty analysis. In this paper, we attempt to systematically and comprehensively introduce the metamodeling technique and investigate several metamodel types in terms of accuracy, computational time, variable importance, and potential practical applications.</description>
    <dc:date>2021-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
  </item>
  <item rdf:about="https://hdl.handle.net/10419/235902">
    <title>Changes in voter behavior after an information signal: An experimental approach for Senegal</title>
    <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/235902</link>
    <description>Title: Changes in voter behavior after an information signal: An experimental approach for Senegal
Authors: Henning, Christian H. C. A.; Petri, Svetlana; Diaz, Daniel
Abstract: Electoral competition is considered a control mechanism to guarantee a good performance of the government. However, in real life it often leads to a distorted policy implementation due to Government Capture and low Government Accountability. Therefore, the analysis of voter behavior is a key factor to understand government performance. More specifically, if voters choose more policy and retrospectively oriented, the government has greater incentives to implement efficient policies. In this sense, if voters have more information on politics, they are more likely to base their decision on policy issues. To assess changes in voter behavior, we carried out a political experiment, where information about the performance of the Senegalese government was delivered to a randomly selected group of voters. Then, based on election surveys data collected before and after the information signal, a probabilistic voter model with latent class using a panel data set was developed. Additionally, to evaluate changes in the relative importance of the three voting motives (policy, non-policy and retrospective), marginal effects and relative marginal effects were estimated. As expected, after the information signal, the relative importance of the policy and the retrospective components increased significantly. [...]</description>
    <dc:date>2020-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
  </item>
  <item rdf:about="https://hdl.handle.net/10419/235896">
    <title>Investing in risky inputs in Senegal: Implications for farm profit and food production</title>
    <link>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/235896</link>
    <description>Title: Investing in risky inputs in Senegal: Implications for farm profit and food production
Authors: Goundan, Anatole; Faye, Amy; Henning, Christian H. C. A.; Collins-Sowah, Peron A.
Abstract: While the productivity effects of the application of modern inputs, such as im- proved seeds or inorganic fertilizer, are well known, farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa tended to underinvest in purchased inputs. This underinvestment appears related to the unpredictable nature of agricultural production that is subject to risks and shocks. Farmers make production decisions before climatic and other shocks are realized. They, therefore, have no certainty about the outcome of their decisions. This makes investments in agricultural inputs very risky. This paper uses recent data for Senegal to identify the main drivers of the decision to purchase risky inputs (seeds and/or fertilizers), the level of investment and to quantify the impact of the use of risky inputs on household welfare. Using a Heck- man model, results show that the main drivers of the decision to purchase risky inputs include household composition, farmer organization, farm size, access to livestock income, and crop diversification. Drivers of the level of investment in risky inputs are gender, extension services, farm size, agricultural capital, and cropping patterns. Using an endogenous switching regression, we find a positive impact on the adoption of risky inputs on farm profit per hectare, and food available from production. The expected impact for non-adopters is found to be higher than that for adopters because they are involved in rice production (which is more responsive to inputs use) and in millet production (which is central for food security).</description>
    <dc:date>2020-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
  </item>
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