https://hdl.handle.net/10419/19 2026-10-06T04:35:55Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/338274 Title: The race between tax enforcement and tax planning: Evidence from a natural experiment in Chile Authors: Bustos, Sebastian; Pomeranz, Dina; Suárez Serrato, Juan Carlos; Vila-Belda, José; Zucman, Gabriel Abstract: Profit shifting by multinational corporations is thought to reduce tax revenue around the world. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the introduction of standard regulations to limit profit shifting. Using administrative tax and customs data from Chile, we find that the reform was ineffective in reducing multinationals' transfers to lower-tax countries and did not significantly raise tax payments. Interviews with tax advisors and employment history data reveal a drastic increase in consulting services. Our results illustrate that when enforcement can be circumvented by sophisticated tax planning, it can benefit tax consultants at the expense of tax authorities and taxpayers. 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/338326 Title: Why do supply disruptions lead to inflation (while demand booms do not)? Survey evidence from the COVID pandemic Authors: Kohler, Thomas; L'Huillier, Jean-Paul; Phelan, Gregory; Weiß, Maximilian Abstract: Firms tend to justify price increases as necessary to cover rising costs. However, standard models imply that firms not only adjust prices to cost increases, but also to changes in spending. We present a model where, instead, there is differential adjustment depending on the type of shock. The model is disciplined using a firm survey, which shows that, towards the end of the pandemic, price increases were primarily a response to higher costs. In contrast, firms report not reacting to higher demand to avoid upsetting customers. Supply shocks are responsible for most of the upward adjustment of prices. 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/338300 Title: The employment consequences of anti-dumping tariffs: Lessons from Brazil Authors: de Souza, Gustavo; Li, Haishi Abstract: How do import tariffs affect employment? We develop an empirical strategy to identify the effects of tariffs using difference-in-differences, comparing anti-dumping (AD) investigations resulting in dumping tariffs to those not resulting in dumping tariffs. We find that an AD tariff decreases imports and increases employment in the protected sector. Moreover, downstream firms decrease employment, while upstream ones are unaffected because the protected sector sources inputs abroad. Using a model to quantify the aggregate effects, we find that the Brazilian AD policy increased employment by 0.06% at a welfare loss of 2.4%. 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10419/338337 Title: Organizational Transmission of AI: Managerial Influence on Generative AI Adoption Authors: Makridis, Christos A. Abstract: Using longitudinal data from the Gallup Panel covering more than 30,000 U.S. employees surveyed from 2023 to 2025, I document heterogeneous adoption of generative AI and its "organizational transmission" within firms. First, I show that the share of active (occasional) AI users grew from 9% to 24% (10% to 23%). I subsequently document these patterns by organizational class of work, organizational hierarchy, income, industry, and occupation. Second, I show that perceived strategic clarity is the dominant correlate of frequent adoption: employees in clear-strategy organizations are roughly 26 percentage points more likely to report frequent use. Strategic clarity itself is tightly linked to managerial communication and credibility, including meaningful feedback and trust in leadership. Third, exploiting within-person variation, income-by-time controls, and a job-switcher design, I show that the relationship between AI use and worker outcomes is strongly contingent on organizational context. Frequent AI use is associated with substantially higher engagement and job satisfaction and with markedly lower burnout when organizations communicate a clear AI strategy, while these benefits are muted or reversed in low-clarity environments. These results are consistent with the predictions from a stylized theoretical model whereby workers are more likely to adopt and experiment with AI when they experience psychological safety. 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z