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  <title>EconStor Community:</title>
  <link rel="alternate" href="https://hdl.handle.net/10419/96942" />
  <subtitle />
  <id>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/96942</id>
  <updated>2026-04-29T17:43:39Z</updated>
  <dc:date>2026-04-29T17:43:39Z</dc:date>
  <entry>
    <title>Urban-rural differences in early births in Austria: A regional and individual level analysis</title>
    <link rel="alternate" href="https://hdl.handle.net/10419/324297" />
    <author>
      <name>Riederer, Bernhard Edwin</name>
    </author>
    <id>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/324297</id>
    <updated>2025-08-23T01:04:24Z</updated>
    <published>2025-01-01T00:00:00Z</published>
    <summary type="text">Title: Urban-rural differences in early births in Austria: A regional and individual level analysis
Authors: Riederer, Bernhard Edwin
Abstract: Demographic research has repeatedly demonstrated differences in fertility on the subnational level, especially between urban and rural regions. The most recent literature focuses on historical developments of total fertility, cohort fertility, or indicators of late fertility (35+). The present paper complements these analyses by focusing on earlier births (i.e., births at ages below 25) and by analysing both regional and individual level data. In particular, I assume that metropolitan areas as centres of contemporary knowledge societies and service economies offer educational and economic opportunities that lead to immigration but are hardly compatible with early fertility, resulting in urban-rural differences in fertility behaviour. On the regional level, I use data for 35 Austrian NUTS 3 regions from 2013 to 2021. Regional analyses focus on the share of age- specific fertility in total fertility. On the individual level, I analyse transitions to first births among the 1984 cohort o f women in Austria. Data stems from Statistics Austria and the Austrian Labour Market Data Base. Dynamic spatial models demonstrate that within-region decreases of early fertility can be largely explained by increases in students, tertiary education, and employment in the service sector. Immigration has heterogenous effects. Higher proportions of third country citizens are associated with higher early fertility but higher proportions of EU/EFTA citizens with lower early fertility. Between-region heterogeneity is at least partly explained by proportions of highly educated and foreign populations. Discrete-time survivor models provide additional insights, showing low levels of early transitions to parenthood among women who moved to cities and women working in knowledge-intensive service activities, and high levels in specific immigrant groups, in particular women with Turkish citizenship, and among women working in blue-collar service jobs.</summary>
    <dc:date>2025-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
  </entry>
  <entry>
    <title>Leveraging population change to improve estimation of mortality in data-scarce context</title>
    <link rel="alternate" href="https://hdl.handle.net/10419/333470" />
    <author>
      <name>Shen, Tianyu</name>
    </author>
    <author>
      <name>Wang, Xueqing</name>
    </author>
    <author>
      <name>Baselini, Ugofilippo</name>
    </author>
    <author>
      <name>Alexander, Monica</name>
    </author>
    <author>
      <name>Chen, Irena</name>
    </author>
    <id>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/333470</id>
    <updated>2025-12-08T09:03:14Z</updated>
    <published>2025-01-01T00:00:00Z</published>
    <summary type="text">Title: Leveraging population change to improve estimation of mortality in data-scarce context
Authors: Shen, Tianyu; Wang, Xueqing; Baselini, Ugofilippo; Alexander, Monica; Chen, Irena
Abstract: In countries with incomplete vital registration, contemporary mortality estimation models such as the log-quadratic model the and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD)-Comp model often produce sizable errors, particularly at prime adult ages (20-45) and older ages (70+), where mortality varies substantially due to country-specific epidemiological profiles. This paper introduces a novel model-agnostic sorting approach that incorporates population change information, derived from decennial censuses and typically available even in data-scarce settings, to improve mortality estimation accuracy. Our method uses cosine similarity of z-score standardized population change patterns to identify the most demographically similar country-years (top 10%) in the training dataset. Using data from the Human Mortality Database and from HIV-affected countries from UN World Population Prospects, we test this approach with both log-quadratic and SVD-Comp models. Results demonstrate consistent improvements in prediction accuracy, with median RMSE for probability of dying (𝑞𝑞𝑥𝑥) decreasing by 17% (log-quadratic) and 13% (SVD-Comp), respectively. Gains are most apparent at young adult and older ages, particularly in countries with distinct mortality patterns, such as those affected by HIV. This approach offers a practical, easily implementable solution that can be integrated into existing mortality estimation workflows without additional data requirements or model restructuring.</summary>
    <dc:date>2025-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
  </entry>
  <entry>
    <title>Fertility decline and age structure in China and India: Actual vs. optimal development</title>
    <link rel="alternate" href="https://hdl.handle.net/10419/296577" />
    <author>
      <name>Fent, Thomas</name>
    </author>
    <author>
      <name>Wrzaczek, Stefan</name>
    </author>
    <author>
      <name>Feichtinger, Gustav</name>
    </author>
    <author>
      <name>Novak, Andreas J.</name>
    </author>
    <id>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/296577</id>
    <updated>2024-06-06T01:39:04Z</updated>
    <published>2024-01-01T00:00:00Z</published>
    <summary type="text">Title: Fertility decline and age structure in China and India: Actual vs. optimal development
Authors: Fent, Thomas; Wrzaczek, Stefan; Feichtinger, Gustav; Novak, Andreas J.
Abstract: China and India, two Asian countries that experienced a rapid decline in fertility since the middle of the twentieth century, are the focus of this paper. Although there is no doubt that lower fertility levels have many positive effects on the economy, development and sustainability, little is known about the optimal transition from high to medium or even low levels of fertility. Firstly, implementing policies that have the potential to reduce fertility is costly. Secondly, additional costs arise from adapting the infrastructure to a population that fluctuates quickly not only in terms of size but also with respect to the age structure. We apply an intertemporal optimisation model that takes the costs and benefits of fertility decline into account. The optimal time path depends on the cost structure, the planning horizon and the initial conditions. In the case of a long planning horizon and high initial fertility, it may even be optimal to reduce fertility temporarily below replacement level in order to slow down population growth at an early stage. A key finding of our formal investigation is that, under the same plausible parameter settings, the optimal paths for China and India differ substantially. Moreover, our analysis shows that India, where the fertility decline emerged as a consequence of societal and economic developments, followed a path closer to the optimal fertility transition than China, where the fertility decline was state-imposed. The mathematical approach deployed for this analysis provides insights into the optimal long-term development of fertility and allows for policy conclusions to be drawn for other countries that are still in the fertility transition process.</summary>
    <dc:date>2024-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
  </entry>
  <entry>
    <title>Mortality differentials by educational attainment globally</title>
    <link rel="alternate" href="https://hdl.handle.net/10419/304436" />
    <author>
      <name>Dhakad, Moradhvaj</name>
    </author>
    <author>
      <name>KC, Samir</name>
    </author>
    <id>https://hdl.handle.net/10419/304436</id>
    <updated>2024-10-24T01:24:24Z</updated>
    <published>2024-01-01T00:00:00Z</published>
    <summary type="text">Title: Mortality differentials by educational attainment globally
Authors: Dhakad, Moradhvaj; KC, Samir
Abstract: The mortality status across the population is determined by its level of socioeconomic development. Education significantly impacts a population's health and lifespan, with more educated individuals tending to live longer than their less-educated counterparts. However, the impact of education on mortality may differ across countries, and the evidence on mortality by educational attainment is primarily limited to low-mortality countries. Understanding mortality differentials by educational attainment is critical for social and health policy formation, and for comprehending the current and future prospects of the population. The Wittgenstein Centre (WIC) population projections in 2013 (WIC2013) and 2018 (WIC2018) assumed standardised mortality differentials by educational attainment based on evidence from a limited number of countries. The updated WIC global population projections in 2023 (WIC2023) now account for age-sex-specific heterogeneity in mortality and migration by educational attainment. This paper describes the data and methods used to estimate mortality by educational attainment in the base year globally. Finally, we analyse mortality patterns by educational attainment for males and females across countries using multiple data sources.</summary>
    <dc:date>2024-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
  </entry>
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