Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies (IOS), Regensburg https://hdl.handle.net/10419/47 2026-09-21T09:28:50Z 2026-09-21T09:28:50Z Gharibyan, Sinara Gomtsyan, David Roca Fernández, Èric https://hdl.handle.net/10419/341355 2026-06-10T10:49:27Z 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Geographic mortality differentials and the quality-quantity trade-off Authors: Gharibyan, Sinara; Gomtsyan, David; Roca Fernández, Èric Abstract: This paper explores the relationship between geographic mortality differentials and human capital investment patterns in the Malthusian setup of 19th-century Armenia. We examine how variations in altitude correlate with mortality rates, human capital accumulation, and fertility decisions. Using detailed historical census and parish records, we document that lower population density at higher altitudes limits the spread of respiratory diseases, leading to lower mortality rates. Our empirical analysis shows that individuals in these environments display better numeracy skills and lower fertility rates. These findings align with the Ben-Porath hypothesis, suggesting that longer life horizons encourage shifting from child quantity to quality. Furthermore, these results are not driven by income differences or increased female autonomy arising from pastoral agriculture.

2026-01-01T00:00:00Z Bräuer, Richard https://hdl.handle.net/10419/343159 2026-08-27T13:51:39Z 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Balanced, yet still biased: Correcting hidden pairwise mismatch in matching estimators Authors: Bräuer, Richard Abstract: Matching estimators exhibit a previously overlooked source of finite sample bias. Even when the assumptions underlying matching hold, the local geometry of the covariate distribution around each observation makes some matching directions more likely than others. This mismatch is ubiquitous and disappears only slowly as the sample size increases. Estimators suffer increased variance and, in most cases where the outcome function is nonlinear, systematic bias. Conventional balance diagnostics generally fail to detect the problem. When they identify it, matching is abandoned unnecessarily. I propose three approaches to mitigate this problem and evaluate them in simulations and empirical applications. A matching procedure that deliberately offsets mismatch across neighboring observations reduces both bias and variance while remaining conceptually and computationally simple.

2026-01-01T00:00:00Z Gnutzmann, Hinnerk Gnutzmann-Mkrtchyan, Arevik Korn, Tobias https://hdl.handle.net/10419/316318 2025-05-06T04:17:45Z 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Reversal of economic integration: Evidence from EU enlargement Authors: Gnutzmann, Hinnerk; Gnutzmann-Mkrtchyan, Arevik; Korn, Tobias Abstract: Empirical models of trade agreements implicitly assume that withdrawal from a trade agreement has an equal and opposite trade effect as accession, i.e., symmetry. With increasing opposition to international economic cooperation, it becomes urgent to test this assumption. We analyze a quasi-natural experiment to explicitly test the symmetry assumption in the context of FTA termination using the gravity model. In 2004, Estonia joined the European Union, which mandated that it withdraws from its FTA with Ukraine. Carefully controlling for possible confounding effects of EU enlargement using a variety of methods, we isolate the FTA withdrawal effect and find strong support in favour of symmetry. Moreover, while import tariffs are part of the impact, the bulk of the effect comes from non-tariff effects of an FTA. General equilibrium estimates suggest that the FTA withdrawal led to a noticeable loss in members' welfare.

2025-01-01T00:00:00Z Brzezinski, Michal Akarsu, Mahmut Zeki https://hdl.handle.net/10419/316317 2025-05-06T04:17:40Z 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: The impact of flat taxes on income and wealth inequality Authors: Brzezinski, Michal; Akarsu, Mahmut Zeki Abstract: Flat tax systems have gained traction in countries that transitioned from socialism, with more than 20 nations in Eastern Europe and Central Asia adopting such systems since the mid-1990s. These reforms aimed to streamline tax processes, enhance compliance, and boost economic growth. While researchers have extensively explored their impacts on GDP and labor markets, their distributional consequences have not been as thoroughly examined. This paper examines the impact of flat tax reforms on income and wealth inequality in post-socialist countries, employing a variant of the difference-in-differences method. Our analysis covers a panel of countries from 1994 to 2015, assessing changes in top, middle, and bottom income and wealth shares. Our findings show that flat tax reforms have significantly increased income inequality, with top income shares rising and middle-income groups losing relative share. These effects are particularly pronounced for post-tax income, reflecting the role of reduced tax progressivity. In contrast, the impact on wealth inequality is more limited. While top wealth shares increase slightly in the short run, these effects do not persist, suggesting that wealth accumulation is driven more by structural factors than income tax changes. Although flat tax reforms may have stimulated economic growth, their regressive distributional effects suggest that, in societies with strong inequality aversion, their overall social welfare impact may be negative.

2025-01-01T00:00:00Z