https://hdl.handle.net/10419/242696 2026-09-16T22:18:03Z 2026-09-16T22:18:03Z Holden, Stein Terje Tione, Sarah Tilahun, Mesfin Katengeza, Samson https://hdl.handle.net/10419/322222 2025-07-26T04:28:41Z 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Elicitation bias in multiple price lists: A field experiment Authors: Holden, Stein Terje; Tione, Sarah; Tilahun, Mesfin; Katengeza, Samson Abstract: Multiple Price Lists (MPLs) or Choice Lists (CLs) are widely used to elicit risk and time preferences, yet are prone to cognitive biases, particularly among respondents with limited numeracy skills. This paper compares three elicitation approaches; row-by-row from the top, from the bottom, and a Rapid Elicitation (RE) method using random starting points; in a field experiment with 906 rural Malawian farmers. With 20 MPLs per subject, we estimate starting point and order biases in switch points using nonparametric and parametric methods. Row-by-row elicitation from the top or bottom introduces significant bias in preference elicitation, with effect sizes of up to 0.4 standard deviations. In contrast, the RE approach yields significantly lower starting point bias (Cohen's d of 0.08 or less). Order effects were present but smaller in magnitude. RE also reduced cognitive load and shortened response time. These findings underscore the importance of the elicitation method in experimental design, particularly in low-literacy settings. The RE method offers a more reliable and scalable tool for eliciting behavioral preferences in development economics.

2025-01-01T00:00:00Z Holden, Stein Terje Makate, Clifton Tione, Sarah https://hdl.handle.net/10419/322223 2025-07-26T04:28:45Z 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Missing parcels and farm size measurement error: Do nationally representative surveys provide reliable estimates? Authors: Holden, Stein Terje; Makate, Clifton; Tione, Sarah Abstract: We assess the reliability of measured farm sizes (ownership holdings) in the Living Standard Measurement Study - Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) in Ethiopia and Malawi based on three survey rounds (2012, 2014, 2016) in Ethiopia and four rounds (2010, 2013, 2016, 2019) in Malawi. Using the balanced panel of households that participated in all the rounds, we utilized the within-household variation in reported and measured ownership holdings that were mostly measured with GPSs and/or rope and compass. While this gives reliable measures of reported holdings, we detect substantial under-reporting of parcels over time within households that largely have been overlooked in previous studies. The problem causes an unrecognized bias in agricultural statistics. We find that the estimated farm sizes within survey rounds are substantially downward biased due to systematic and stochastic under-reporting of parcels. Such biases are substantial in the data from both countries, in all survey rounds, and in all regions of each country. We estimate models with alternative estimators for the ownership holding share of maximum within-household holding to examine factors associated with variation in reported farm sizes. Based on the analyses, we propose that the maximum within-household reported farm sizes over several survey rounds provide a more reliable proxy for the real farm size, as these maximum sizes are less likely to be biased due to parcel attrition. The ignorance of this non-classical measurement error is associated with a downward bias of 12-41% in average and median farm sizes and an upward bias in the Gini coefficients for farm size distributions. We propose ideas for follow-up research and improvements in collecting these data types and draw relevant policy implications.

2025-01-01T00:00:00Z Araya, Girmay Berhe Holden, Stein Terje https://hdl.handle.net/10419/322117 2025-07-26T04:28:43Z 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Fertilizer use intensification and manure use: The case of Tigrai, northern Ethiopia Authors: Araya, Girmay Berhe; Holden, Stein Terje Abstract: There has been an increase in fertilizer use among farmers in the semi-arid Tigray region of Ethiopia during 2006-2015. Our household panel data covering nine years show that the average fertilizer adoption rate had increased from about 31% of plots in 2006 to almost 67% in 2015. Likewise, fertilizer use intensity increased from 28.6 kg/ha in 2006 to 88.5 kg/ha in 2015. Our study aims to explain the increase in fertilizer use and assess how it is associated with changes in manure use. This study is vital given the vast literature on low adoption and fertilizer use in Africa and the scanty literature on the relation between inorganic and organic fertilizers. We use panel data of farm household plots in three rounds (2006, 2010, and 2015) and estimate a correlated random effects double hurdle model with the control function approach to handle endogeneity. We analyze by splitting our sample by population density, market-access, and irrigation. The results show fertilizer use was higher in densely populated areas and areas with good market-access while its intensity was increasing in less densely populated areas, areas with good market-access, and non-irrigated plots. On the implication of increased uptake in fertilizer to manure use, our results suggest that the two inputs appear to be substitutes at the extensive margin. Moreover, with good market access, there seems to be complementarity between the two inputs at the extensive margin and substitution at the intensive margin.

2025-01-01T00:00:00Z Araya, Girmay Berhe Holden, Stein Terje https://hdl.handle.net/10419/322118 2025-07-26T04:28:50Z 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Social protection and household composition: A panel data analysis of Tigrai, northern Ethiopia Authors: Araya, Girmay Berhe; Holden, Stein Terje Abstract: Although development intervention programs can have far-reaching impacts beyond their stated objective, there have been few careful studies of unintended outcomes of such programs. This study assesses the role of Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) on household size and dependency ratio using the Difference-in-Difference (DiD) method based on panel data from four rounds over 12 years collected in Tigrai, northern Ethiopia. Results show that member households in the public works component of the PSNP have maintained a larger household size than their counterparts outside the PSNP. Member households also had a larger dependency ratio than their counterparts outside the PSNP five years after the program started (2005-2010). With the graduation of members and the downscaling of the program in the period 2010-2015, the effects on household size and dependency ratio were reduced and vanished.

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