https://hdl.handle.net/10419/242695 2026-09-16T22:17:48Z 2026-09-16T22:17:48Z Angelsen, Arild Dermawan, Ahmad Ladewig, Malte https://hdl.handle.net/10419/311679 2025-02-22T02:10:48Z 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Explaining the recent reduction of Indonesia's deforestation Authors: Angelsen, Arild; Dermawan, Ahmad; Ladewig, Malte Abstract: Deforestation in Indonesia has declined sharply since 2015-2016. We use a combination of spatial land use change data, interviews with stakeholders and statistical analysis to explain this reduction. The exact extent of the reduction in deforestation depends on the data set used, and the years or time periods compared, varying between 40% and 90%. A robust estimate is that deforestation has fallen by at least 50% since ca. 2016. The decline is uneven across islands and provinces. The two main "deforestation islands" Kalimantan and Sumatra experienced a major decline, with a relatively larger decline in the former. The provinces with the largest absolute decline were Riau, South Sumatra and Central Kalimantan, followed by West and East Kalimantan. In terms of commodities driving deforestation ("direct drivers"), palm oil is still the most important commodity (46% for 2018-2022, according to MapBiomas Indonesia data, compared to 55% for the period 2010-2017). Pulp is on the rise as a deforestation driver, particularly in Kalimantan. In the three high deforestation provinces on that island, the demand for pulp was behind almost 1/3 of the natural forest conversion in 2022. Mining for coal and valuable minerals such as nickel is also on the rise, with MBI data suggesting its share of national deforestation being 5.4% (2021-2022), compared to less than one (0.9%) for the 2010-2017 period. Mining is particularly important in Sulawesi, where it according to one estimate accounted for 30% of the deforestation in 2021-2022. Five hypotheses are put forward to explain the reduction, related to public policies, private (corporate) policies, civil society pressure, commodity prices, and forest scarcity. (...) While we conclude that all five hypotheses put forward are relevant to explain the recent decline in deforestation, we tentative conclude that public polices - in combination with a forest transition (scarcity) effect - has been the most important factors. Private policies show more mixed results. Behind the public and private policy changes, civil society has played a key role in policy reforms and in promoting more effective implementation though its watchdog role. Non-increasing agricultural commodity prices have made the implementation of forest conservation policies less costly. Deforestation is still a profitable activity for land users and (sub)national governments, and forest conservation is a continuous battle, with future challenges emerging: the effectiveness of current policies may weakened over time, political priorities may change, prices of deforestation-risk commodities may rise, and the composition of direct drivers change - requiring a shift in the policy focus.

2025-01-01T00:00:00Z Holden, Stein Terje Tione, Sarah Tilahun, Mesfin Katengeza, Samson https://hdl.handle.net/10419/322222 2025-07-26T04:28:41Z 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Elicitation bias in multiple price lists: A field experiment Authors: Holden, Stein Terje; Tione, Sarah; Tilahun, Mesfin; Katengeza, Samson Abstract: Multiple Price Lists (MPLs) or Choice Lists (CLs) are widely used to elicit risk and time preferences, yet are prone to cognitive biases, particularly among respondents with limited numeracy skills. This paper compares three elicitation approaches; row-by-row from the top, from the bottom, and a Rapid Elicitation (RE) method using random starting points; in a field experiment with 906 rural Malawian farmers. With 20 MPLs per subject, we estimate starting point and order biases in switch points using nonparametric and parametric methods. Row-by-row elicitation from the top or bottom introduces significant bias in preference elicitation, with effect sizes of up to 0.4 standard deviations. In contrast, the RE approach yields significantly lower starting point bias (Cohen's d of 0.08 or less). Order effects were present but smaller in magnitude. RE also reduced cognitive load and shortened response time. These findings underscore the importance of the elicitation method in experimental design, particularly in low-literacy settings. The RE method offers a more reliable and scalable tool for eliciting behavioral preferences in development economics.

2025-01-01T00:00:00Z Holden, Stein Terje Makate, Clifton Tione, Sarah https://hdl.handle.net/10419/322223 2025-07-26T04:28:45Z 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Missing parcels and farm size measurement error: Do nationally representative surveys provide reliable estimates? Authors: Holden, Stein Terje; Makate, Clifton; Tione, Sarah Abstract: We assess the reliability of measured farm sizes (ownership holdings) in the Living Standard Measurement Study - Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) in Ethiopia and Malawi based on three survey rounds (2012, 2014, 2016) in Ethiopia and four rounds (2010, 2013, 2016, 2019) in Malawi. Using the balanced panel of households that participated in all the rounds, we utilized the within-household variation in reported and measured ownership holdings that were mostly measured with GPSs and/or rope and compass. While this gives reliable measures of reported holdings, we detect substantial under-reporting of parcels over time within households that largely have been overlooked in previous studies. The problem causes an unrecognized bias in agricultural statistics. We find that the estimated farm sizes within survey rounds are substantially downward biased due to systematic and stochastic under-reporting of parcels. Such biases are substantial in the data from both countries, in all survey rounds, and in all regions of each country. We estimate models with alternative estimators for the ownership holding share of maximum within-household holding to examine factors associated with variation in reported farm sizes. Based on the analyses, we propose that the maximum within-household reported farm sizes over several survey rounds provide a more reliable proxy for the real farm size, as these maximum sizes are less likely to be biased due to parcel attrition. The ignorance of this non-classical measurement error is associated with a downward bias of 12-41% in average and median farm sizes and an upward bias in the Gini coefficients for farm size distributions. We propose ideas for follow-up research and improvements in collecting these data types and draw relevant policy implications.

2025-01-01T00:00:00Z Araya, Girmay Berhe Holden, Stein Terje https://hdl.handle.net/10419/322117 2025-07-26T04:28:43Z 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Fertilizer use intensification and manure use: The case of Tigrai, northern Ethiopia Authors: Araya, Girmay Berhe; Holden, Stein Terje Abstract: There has been an increase in fertilizer use among farmers in the semi-arid Tigray region of Ethiopia during 2006-2015. Our household panel data covering nine years show that the average fertilizer adoption rate had increased from about 31% of plots in 2006 to almost 67% in 2015. Likewise, fertilizer use intensity increased from 28.6 kg/ha in 2006 to 88.5 kg/ha in 2015. Our study aims to explain the increase in fertilizer use and assess how it is associated with changes in manure use. This study is vital given the vast literature on low adoption and fertilizer use in Africa and the scanty literature on the relation between inorganic and organic fertilizers. We use panel data of farm household plots in three rounds (2006, 2010, and 2015) and estimate a correlated random effects double hurdle model with the control function approach to handle endogeneity. We analyze by splitting our sample by population density, market-access, and irrigation. The results show fertilizer use was higher in densely populated areas and areas with good market-access while its intensity was increasing in less densely populated areas, areas with good market-access, and non-irrigated plots. On the implication of increased uptake in fertilizer to manure use, our results suggest that the two inputs appear to be substitutes at the extensive margin. Moreover, with good market access, there seems to be complementarity between the two inputs at the extensive margin and substitution at the intensive margin.

2025-01-01T00:00:00Z