https://hdl.handle.net/10419/205369 2026-10-10T07:45:26Z 2026-10-10T07:45:26Z Parker, Chris https://hdl.handle.net/10419/311811 2025-02-22T02:04:49Z 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Deriving values of the social rate of time preference Authors: Parker, Chris Abstract: This report estimates the "social rate of time preference" (SRTP) for New Zealand public policy appraisal using a Ramsey equation. It uses the Weitzman (1998) method to derive a declining discount rate schedule of 2% (real) for years 1-30, 1.5% for years 31-100, and 1% for years 101 on. The report does not compare and contrast social discount rate methods and how to use them in practice.

2025-01-01T00:00:00Z Ng, Tim https://hdl.handle.net/10419/337160 2026-02-27T06:21:18Z 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Natural population ageing and the aggregate stock of human capital in New Zealand Authors: Ng, Tim Abstract: I quantify the implications of projected natural population ageing for the value of the New Zealand aggregate human capital stock, using the Jorgenson/Fraumeni framework and Mincer equations. Using the framework, I compare quantitatively the impact of natural population ageing with that of other key influences on aggregate human capital, such as net immigration, real wage growth and educational attainment. The results suggest that the impact of projected natural ageing is substantial when considered in light of the changes that would be needed in the other influences to have a quantitatively equivalent offsetting impact.

2025-01-01T00:00:00Z Schaer, Bettina https://hdl.handle.net/10419/337159 2026-02-27T06:21:53Z 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Human capital in New Zealand Authors: Schaer, Bettina Abstract: The purpose of the paper is to help inform priorities for improving human capital. Governments, communities, and individuals invest a lot of resources in human capital. These investments include those in education, immigration systems, health, active labour market policies, and tax incentives. The paper identifies how human capital links to living standards, what is known about the strength of those links, and how effective government policies have been in improving outcomes. The paper compares international surveys and meta-analyses with what is known in New Zealand literature. It sets out how New Zealand is unusual in the way it develops human capital compared to other developed economies due to high rates of emigration and immigration, and low returns to skills. The paper also identifies gaps in understanding, research and policy directions.

2025-01-01T00:00:00Z Binning, Andrew https://hdl.handle.net/10419/299334 2024-07-03T01:37:28Z 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Calculating government consumption multipliers in New Zealand using an estimated DSGE model Authors: Binning, Andrew Abstract: Fiscal multipliers provide a way of quantifying the GDP gain for a given (discretionary) fiscal policy intervention. I compute government consumption multipliers for New Zealand, in normal times and when monetary policy is constrained at the effective lower bound, using an estimated monetary-fiscal dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Quantifying the impact of discretionary fiscal policy is important when considering the design of fiscal support packages to offset future economic downturns. I calculate multipliers under a number of different monetary policy assumptions when imposing the lower bound on interest rates. I investigate the range of results implied by the model and the features of the policy and economic environments that lead to larger government consumption multipliers. I find that estimated government consumption multipliers are larger when interest rates are at the lower bound, but still smaller than 1, when entry and exit to the lower bound are determined by both economic conditions and the central bank's reaction function. This implies increases in government consumption crowd out other expenditure. When the central bank can commit to holding interest rates fixed for 2 or more years, independent of economic conditions, government consumption multipliers can exceed 1. Factors that amplify demand shocks are more likely to increase multipliers, especially at the lower bound, though these features may be undesirable for macroeconomic stabilisation more generally. Larger government consumption multipliers are not an end in themselves, rather the size of the multipliers can influence the design of discretionary policy programmes.

2024-01-01T00:00:00Z