Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza (DISCE) https://hdl.handle.net/10419/170596 2026-10-23T16:53:45Z 2026-10-23T16:53:45Z Cappellari, Lorenzo Morelli, Marco https://hdl.handle.net/10419/339250 2026-04-04T07:44:25Z 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Backward spillovers and equalized access: The effects of the Bologna process across Italy's education system Authors: Cappellari, Lorenzo; Morelli, Marco Abstract: This paper estimates the causal effects of the Bologna Process reform in Italy, analyzing the impact of the introduction of the "3+2" degree structure at different stages of the educational system. We implement multiple Difference-in-Differences designs on a nationally representative dataset composed of more than 140,000 high school graduates and 220,000 university graduates. We find that the reform increased graduations from the academicoriented high school track by +5.50 p.p., revealing a "backward spillover effect" on high school completion. For university-related outcomes, we estimate a positive effect on enrollments (+5.53 p.p.) and in-time graduations (+7.22 p.p.) and a negative effect on dropout (-2.70 p.p.). The effects are always larger for students coming from the most disadvantaged parental backgrounds, particularly when combined with high ability. These findings suggest that the Bologna Process was effective in reducing barriers to educational investment, especially for talented students with financial constraints, thus challenging the narrative of the reform attracting low ability students. Finally, descriptive labor-market analyses show a convergence of performances for graduates with different parental backgrounds, but only among Bachelor's graduates.

2026-01-01T00:00:00Z Bingley, Paul Cappellari, Lorenzo Tatsiramos, Konstantinos https://hdl.handle.net/10419/339286 2026-04-04T07:44:12Z 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Tatsiramos, Assortative mating and education gradients within and across generations Authors: Bingley, Paul; Cappellari, Lorenzo; Tatsiramos, Konstantinos Abstract: We develop a model that links education-outcome gradients to intergenerational transmission, distinguishing joint from parent-specific channels under assortative mating. Using Danish administrative data on family quartets, we estimate the own education-outcome gradient and, in addition, intergenerational gradients in long-run earnings, disposable income, assets, and wealth. Gradients differ sharply across domains: for earnings and income, joint transmission matters alongside individual-specific heterogeneity; for assets and especially wealth, gradients are dominated by parent-specific channels. Exploiting Danish schooling reforms, we show that the composition of financial gradients varies with access to schooling.

2026-01-01T00:00:00Z Letta, Gabriele Nurchis, Mario Cesare Salmasi, Luca Turati, Gilberto https://hdl.handle.net/10419/339337 2026-04-04T07:44:23Z 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Do vaccination-based access restriction policies curb hesitancy? A comparison between Italy and Spain Authors: Letta, Gabriele; Nurchis, Mario Cesare; Salmasi, Luca; Turati, Gilberto Abstract: Vaccine hesitancy is a crucial public health issue worldwide. In this paper, we evaluate the causal impact of a vaccination-based access restriction policy on vaccine uptake by exploiting the introduction of the EU Digital COVID-19 Certificate at the country level. We compare two countries, Italy and Spain, which-despite using the Certificate as a prerequisite for many daily activities-experienced different adoption patterns. In Spain, the Certificate was introduced regionally, temporarily suspended by the Courts, and later reintroduced in several regions. In Italy, it was introduced in June 2021 and progressively expanded, culminating in mandatory vaccination for individuals aged over 50. We test the impact of the Certificate on vaccination rates using a Sharp Regression Kink Design, identifying changes in the slope of vaccination rates around the announcements by the two governments relative to the introduction of the Certificate. We find that the digital COVID-19 Certificate increased vaccinations in Italy in a range spanning from 3 to 11 percent. In Spain, by contrast, only the reintroduction seems to have been able to affect vaccinations. This result for Spain is also supported by a Difference-in-Differences model, exploiting the staggered reintroduction of the Certificate at the regional level.

2026-01-01T00:00:00Z Bordignon, Massimo Colussii, Tommaso https://hdl.handle.net/10419/339284 2026-04-04T07:44:09Z 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Populism in the Italian municipal elections: The M5S experience Authors: Bordignon, Massimo; Colussii, Tommaso Abstract: This paper reviews a growing body of theoretical and empirical research on Italian populism through a detailed examination of the Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle, M5S), focusing on its experience in municipal elections. Using a wide range of administrative and survey data, as well as theoretical modelling, the paper analyses the determinants of M5S success in municipal elections. The evidence shows that while the dual-ballot system initially favored M5S candidates, their time in municipal office was short-lived, as M5S incumbents were less likely to be re-elected than mayors from traditional parties. This electoral decline is linked not only to the loss of ideological ambiguity but also to weak administrative performance. The analysis further documents a lasting populist legacy in the form of reduced trust in democratic institutions following M5S local governance. Evidence from the COVID-19 period further shows that targeted redistributive policies reduced support for populist parties. Overall, these findings highlight the importance of institutional context in shaping populist success, the governance challenges faced by outsider movements, and the conditions under which populist support can be contained or reversed.

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