FIW - Research Centre International Economics, Vienna https://hdl.handle.net/10419/120997 2026-11-06T17:19:31Z 2026-11-06T17:19:31Z Oberhofer, Harald https://hdl.handle.net/10419/343912 2026-09-21T16:47:01Z 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: One year of America First 2.0: Assessing the effects of Trump's trade policies Authors: Oberhofer, Harald Abstract: This Policy Brief evaluates the trade policy of Donald Trump during the first year of his second presidential term. The administration pursued a strongly protectionist agenda, implementing new tariffs on a wide range of products and trading partners, including long-standing allies such as the EU, Canada, and Mexico, as well as strategic competitors such as China. The analysis documents a substantial increase in U.S. economic policy uncertainty induced by tariff measures, with the Economic Policy Uncertainty and related trade policy indices reaching historical highs in 2025. Early economic effects include a depreciation of the U.S. dollar against major currencies, reduced U.S. import volumes - particularly from China and, after an initial frontloading, from the EU and Austria - and a modest but measurable pass-through to consumer prices, adding roughly 0.7 percentage points to U.S. inflation by September 2025. For trading partners such as the EU and Austria, descriptive evidence points to declining exports to the U.S. and a reduction in the U.S. share in Austrian goods exports after tariff implementation. The Policy Brief concludes by outlining policy options for the EU and Austria to mitigate these losses, emphasizing alternative trade policy initiatives with like-minded partners, measures to strengthen the competitiveness and resilience of the European Single Market, and the importance of a rules-based multilateral trading system, while cautioning against a generalised resort to safeguard tariffs.

2026-01-01T00:00:00Z Bärenthaler-Sieber, Susanne Böheim, Michael Christen, Elisabeth https://hdl.handle.net/10419/343913 2026-09-21T16:47:01Z 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Austria's economic defence as an integral part of a European security strategy Authors: Bärenthaler-Sieber, Susanne; Böheim, Michael; Christen, Elisabeth Abstract: In light of growing geopolitical uncertainty, hybrid threats, and strategic economic dependencies, economic national defence is gaining renewed relevance in security policy. This policy brief examines the role of Austria's national economic defence as an integral component of a European Security Strategy. It focuses on the strengthening of economic resilience by using an innovative quantitative approach for detecting vulnerabilities in the global trade network. The analysis further explores how national instruments can be aligned with European initiatives within the framework of the Common Security and Defence Policy and other EU resilience mechanisms. The article concludes by outlining key policy options and argues for enhanced coordination between national preparedness and European Security Policy to sustainably strengthen Europe's strategic autonomy. It envisages Austria's future role as an upgraded hub for the CEE region.

2026-01-01T00:00:00Z Landesmann, Michael Flórez Mendoza, Javier Stehrer, Robert https://hdl.handle.net/10419/343914 2026-09-21T16:47:01Z 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: The EU-India Free Trade Agreement Authors: Landesmann, Michael; Flórez Mendoza, Javier; Stehrer, Robert Abstract: After nearly two decades of intermittent negotiations, the EU and India announced the conclusion of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) at their summit in New Delhi on 27 January 2026. This paper analyses the geo-political and geo-economic drivers behind the agreement, its principal features and its anticipated economic effects. Against a backdrop of escalating US trade protectionism, the erosion of the multilateral trading system, and shared incentives to reduce strategic dependence on China, both parties found compelling reasons to accelerate negotiations. The FTA provides for asymmetric but substantial tariff reductions - Indian duties on EU goods fall from an average of 16.2% towards zero on 86% of tariff lines, while the EU eliminates tariffs on 99.5% of Indian goods - and broadens market access in services, digital trade and professional mobility. Drawing on model simulations based on the Caliendo-Parro framework applied to the most recent OECD TiVA data, the paper quantifies trade and welfare effects for the EU, India and Austria specifically. It further argues that available model-based estimates represent lower bounds of the likely impact, as they do not fully capture dynamic gains from regulatory convergence, increased foreign direct investment, service liberalisation and enhanced skilled labour mobility. The paper concludes with a discussion of key implementation challenges, including the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), the pending Investment Protection Agreement, and the alignment of the EU's industrial strategy with India's industrialisation drive.

2026-01-01T00:00:00Z Stehrer, Robert Zilian, Stella https://hdl.handle.net/10419/308784 2025-01-21T02:12:26Z 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Beschäftigungswirkungen der österreichischen Exportwirtschaft und demografische Szenarien Authors: Stehrer, Robert; Zilian, Stella Abstract: Dieser Bericht untersucht die Beschäftigungswirkungen der österreichischen Exportwirtschaft im Vergleich zur Gesamtwirtschaft seit dem Jahr 2011. Diese werden dazu nach Beschäftigungskategorien, wie Alter, Geschlecht, Bildungsabschlüssen und Berufsklassen, analysiert. Besonderes Augenmerk wird dabei auf die Zusammensetzung der Beschäftigung nach Alterskohorten gelegt. Der Grund dafür ist, dass bis Anfang der 2030er-Jahre die sogenannte Babyboomer-Generation zu einem großen Teil aus dem Arbeitsmarkt ausscheiden wird, was zu Arbeitskräfteknappheiten führen kann. Dazu werden rezente Szenarien der Entwicklung der österreichischen Bevölkerung und der Erwerbspersonen - und somit des Arbeitskräfteangebotes - nach den oben genannten Kategorien über die nächsten zehn Jahre gezeigt. Werden diese Szenarien hinsichtlich der potenziellen Entwicklung des Arbeitsangebotes mit jenen der Entwicklung der Arbeitsnachfrage verknüpft, zeigen sich mögliche zukünftige Engpässe am Arbeitsmarkt, falls das Wachstum der Nachfrage nach Arbeitskräften aufgrund der demografischen Entwicklungen größer als jenes des Angebotes ist. Gemäß den sich ergebenden Szenarien für die Altersgruppe der 15- bis 64-Jährigen kommt es tatsächlich zu signifikanten Knappheiten ab Beginn der 2030er-Jahre. Es wird auch - da ähnliche demografische Trends für die meisten EU-Mitgliedsstaaten zu erwarten sind - auf europäischer Ebene nicht nur zu einem stärkeren Wettbewerb um Talente, sondern zu einem allgemeinen Wettbewerb um Arbeitskräfte kommen, bei dem z. B. Löhne, Arbeitsbedingungen sowie das sozioökonomische Umfeld für Migranten und Migrantinnen eine wichtige Rolle spielen werden. Sich daraus ergebende wirtschaftspolitische Schlussfolgerungen sowie Limitationen der Studie werden am Ende zusammengefasst.

2025-01-01T00:00:00Z