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Title:Modelling the age dynamics of chronic health conditions: Life-table-consistent transition probabilities and their application PDF Logo
Authors:Denton, Frank T.
Spencer, Byron G.
Issue Date:2011
Series/Report no.:QSEP Research Report, McMaster University 448
Abstract:We derive transition probability matrices for chronic health conditions using survey prevalence data. Matrices are constructed for successive age groups and the sequence represents the age dynamics of the health conditions for a stationary population - the probabilities of acquiring the conditions, of moving from one chronic conditions state to another, and of dying. One can simulate the life path of a cohort under the initial probabilities, and again under altered probabilities to explore the effects of eliminating a particular condition or reducing its mortality probabilities. We report the results of such simulations and note the general applicability of the methods.
Subjects:Chronic health conditions
Transition probabilities
Age dynamics
JEL:I19
J19
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:QSEP Research Reports, McMaster University

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