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dc.contributor.authorRendon, Silvioen
dc.date.accessioned2012-09-11-
dc.date.accessioned2012-09-14T11:05:36Z-
dc.date.available2012-09-14T11:05:36Z-
dc.date.issued2012-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/62403-
dc.description.abstractI discuss the application of capture-recapture methods to estimating the total number of deaths in armed conflicts, and propose an alternative method based on a trivariate discrete choice model. Data come from the 'Truth and Reconciliation Commission' (TRC) of Peru, around 25000 deaths, classified by three sources of information, geographical strata, and perpetrator: the State and the Shining Path. In these data many killings have been only documented by one source, which makes a projection of killings unfeasible. TRC consultants Ball et al. (2003) tried to overcome this problem by means of a 'residual estimation,' consisting of merging data for different perpetrators. I show theoretically and empirically that this method over-estimates the number of deaths. Using a conditional trivariate Probit I estimate the total number of deaths in around 28000, 60% by the State, 40% by the Shining Path. This number is substantially lower and has a different composition than the around 69000 deaths, 30% by the State, 46% by the Shining Path, and 24% by 'other perpetrators,' calculated by Ball et al.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aInstitute for the Study of Labor (IZA) |cBonnen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aIZA Discussion Papers |x6827en
dc.subject.jelD74en
dc.subject.jelC35en
dc.subject.jelC4en
dc.subject.jelO54en
dc.subject.jelP16en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordarmed conflicten
dc.subject.keywordcapture-recaptureen
dc.subject.keywordcount dataen
dc.subject.keyworddiscrete choiceen
dc.subject.keywordhuman rightsen
dc.subject.keywordmaximum-likelihood estimationen
dc.subject.keywordPoisson regressionen
dc.titleA discrete choice approach to estimating armed conflicts' casualties: Revisiting the numbers of a "Truth Commission"-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn72541152Xen
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen

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