Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/60968 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2008
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Staff Report No. 334
Verlag: 
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, NY
Zusammenfassung: 
We review evidence on the Great Moderation together with evidence about volatility trends at the micro level to develop a potential explanation for the decline in aggregate volatility since the 1980s and its consequences. The key elements are declines in firm-level volatility and aggregate volatility-most dramatically in the durable goods sector-but with no decline in household consumption volatility and individual earnings uncertainty. Our explanation for the aggregate volatility decline stresses improved supply-chain management, particularly in the durable goods sector, and, less important, a shift in production and employment from goods to services. We provide evidence that better inventory control made a substantial contribution to declines in firm-level and aggregate volatility. Consistent with this view, if we look past the turbulent 1970s and early 1980s, much of the moderation reflects a decline in high-frequency (short-term) fluctuations. While these developments represent efficiency gains, they do not imply (nor is there evidence for) a reduction in economic uncertainty faced by individuals and households.
Schlagwörter: 
Great Moderation
inventories
monetary policy
volatility
JEL: 
E20
E32
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

Datei(en):
Datei
Größe
217.56 kB





Publikationen in EconStor sind urheberrechtlich geschützt.