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dc.contributor.authorHoffmann, Mathiasen
dc.contributor.authorKrause, Michael U.en
dc.contributor.authorLaubach, Thomasen
dc.date.accessioned2012-05-03-
dc.date.accessioned2012-05-09T09:58:31Z-
dc.date.available2012-05-09T09:58:31Z-
dc.date.issued2012-
dc.identifier.isbn978-3-86558-813-5en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/57777-
dc.description.abstractWe provide an analysis that might help distinguish rationally justified movements in house prices from potentially non-rational movements, using a two-sector business cycle model, in which investment in housing is subject to collateral constraints. A large portion of the evolution of U.S. house prices during the past 20 years can be reproduced when expectations of future income growth as published in surveys are used as an input into the model. Changes in growth expectations translate into corresponding changes in house prices, since the value of housing must be linked to expected aggregate income. Only since about 2005 do actual and model-implied house prices clearly diverge, calling for explanations not based on economic fundamentals.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aDeutsche Bundesbank |cFrankfurt a. M.en
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aBundesbank Discussion Paper |x12/2012en
dc.subject.jelE13en
dc.subject.jelE32en
dc.subject.jelD83en
dc.subject.jelO40en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordHouse pricesen
dc.subject.keywordtrend growthen
dc.subject.keywordKalman filteren
dc.subject.keywordreal-time dataen
dc.subject.keywordborrowing constraintsen
dc.titleTrend growth expectations and US house prices before and after the crisis-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn715127160en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:bubdps:122012en

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