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Title:Energy access scenarios to 2030 for the power sector in Sub-Saharan Africa PDF Logo
Authors:Bazilian, Morgan
Nussbaumer, Patrick
Rogner, Hans-Holger
Brew-Hammond, Abeeku
Foster, Vivien
Pachauri, Shonali
Williams, Eric
Howells, Mark
Niyongabo, Philippe
Musaba, Lawrence
Ó Gallachóir, Brian
Radka, Mark
Kammen, Daniel M.
Issue Date:2011
Series/Report no.:Nota di lavoro // Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei: Energy: Resources and Markets 68.2011
Abstract:In order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several high-level, transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power planning, show roughly a threefold increase in installed generation capacity occurring by 2030, but more than a tenfold increase would likely be required to provide for full access - even at relatively modest levels of electricity consumption. This equates to approximately a 13% average annual growth rate, compared to a historical one (in the last two decades) of 1.7%.
Subjects:Energy Access
Power System Planning
Sub-Saharan Africa
JEL:C1
Q41
Q47
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:FEEM Working Papers, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

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