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dc.contributor.authorXu, Haiyanen
dc.contributor.authorZhang, ZhongXiangen
dc.date.accessioned2011-03-17-
dc.date.accessioned2011-12-15T11:30:51Z-
dc.date.available2011-12-15T11:30:51Z-
dc.date.issued2011-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/53184-
dc.description.abstractCrude oil prices have been fluctuating over time and by a large range. It is the disorganization of oil price series that makes it difficult to deduce the changing trends of oil prices in the middle- and long-terms and predict their price levels in the short-term. Following a price-state classification and state transition analysis of changing oil prices from January 2004 to April 2010, this paper first verifies that the observed crude oil price series during the soaring period follow a Markov Chain. Next, the paper deduces the changing trends of oil prices by the limit probability of a Markov Chain. We then undertake a probability distribution analysis and find that the oil price series have a log-normality distribution. On this basis, we integrate the two models to deduce the changing trends of oil prices from the short-term to the middle- and long-terms, thus making our deduction academically sound. Our results match the actual changing trends of oil prices, and show the possibility of re-emerging soaring oil prices.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aFondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) |cMilanoen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aNota di Lavoro |x22.2011en
dc.subject.jelQ41en
dc.subject.jelQ47en
dc.subject.jelC12en
dc.subject.jelC49en
dc.subject.jelF01en
dc.subject.jelO13en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordOil Priceen
dc.subject.keywordLog-normality Distributionen
dc.subject.keywordLimit Probability of a Markov Chainen
dc.subject.keywordTrend Deduction Modelen
dc.subject.keywordOPECen
dc.titleA trend deduction model of fluctuating oil prices-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn65437046Xen
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen

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