Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/39580 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2001
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
ZEI Working Paper No. B 16-2001
Verlag: 
Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Zentrum für Europäische Integrationsforschung (ZEI), Bonn
Zusammenfassung: 
This paper examines the sources of fluctuations in inflation and output in two leading transitioneconomy candidates for admission to the European Union (EU), Poland and Hungary. Using a rational expectations, dynamic open economy aggregate supply- aggregate demand model, we consider real oil price, supply, balance of payments, demand, and monetary disturbances incorporating important features of transition economies such as balance of payments disturbances and finite capital mobility. Evidence indicates that supply shocks explain a sizable portion of price level movements in Hungary while demand shocks are dominant in price level movements in Poland. Monetary shocks are an important source of output fluctuations in the short run in Hungary suggesting nominal inertia. In Poland, real demand shocks affect output in the short run (up to one year), while monetary shocks are negligible. Estimates of “core inflation” based on historical realizations of the shocks suggest that a major component of inflation has been demand driven, “core” inflation. Finally, policy implications of these findings regarding EU membership are evaluated.
Schlagwörter: 
Business Cycles
Inflation
Transition Economies
Time Series Models
JEL: 
E3
P2
O5
C5
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

Datei(en):
Datei
Größe
418.87 kB





Publikationen in EconStor sind urheberrechtlich geschützt.