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dc.contributor.authorLay, Jannen
dc.contributor.authorThiele, Raineren
dc.contributor.authorWiebelt, Manfreden
dc.date.accessioned2009-01-28T14:17:26Z-
dc.date.available2009-01-28T14:17:26Z-
dc.date.issued2004-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/3394-
dc.description.abstractThis paper analyzes how major external shocks and policy reforms affect Bolivia's ability to achieve pro-poor growth. Employing a recursive-dynamic CGE model, it considers three different scenarios: an optimistic baseline scenario that roughly extrapolates the situation prevailing before the onset of the recent economic crisis; a more realistic scenario that accounts for two important negative external shocks (declining capital inflows and El Ni?o); and a scenario that captures the combined effect of the shocks and two major reform projects (development of the gas sector and deregulation of the urban labor market). It turns out that the shocks have not only contributed to the economic crisis, but that they are also likely to impair Bolivia's medium-term development prospects, leading to marked increases in both urban and rural poverty. If the reform projects were implemented, their impact on growth would be large enough to slightly overcompensate the impact of the negative external shocks. The poverty increase caused by the shocks would be more than offset for urban households, but reinforced for rural households.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aKiel Institute for World Economics (IfW) |cKielen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aKiel Working Paper |x1231en
dc.subject.jelD58en
dc.subject.jelO54en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordPro-poor Growthen
dc.subject.keywordCGE Analysisen
dc.subject.keywordBoliviaen
dc.subject.stwWirtschaftsreformen
dc.subject.stwSchocken
dc.subject.stwArmuten
dc.subject.stwWirtschaftswachstumen
dc.subject.stwAllgemeines Gleichgewichten
dc.subject.stwSchätzungen
dc.subject.stwBolivienen
dc.titlePro-poor growth in Bolivia: accounting for external shocks and policy reforms-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn47232165Xen
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1231en

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