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dc.contributor.authorHelms, Florianen
dc.contributor.authorCzado, Claudiaen
dc.contributor.authorGschlößl, Susanneen
dc.date.accessioned2005-04-04-
dc.date.accessioned2010-05-14T10:10:03Z-
dc.date.available2010-05-14T10:10:03Z-
dc.date.issued2004-
dc.identifier.pidoi:10.5282/ubm/epub.1763en
dc.identifier.piurn:nbn:de:bvb:19-epub-1763-2en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/31064-
dc.description.abstractIn this paper we model the life-history of LTC patients using a Markovian multi-state model in order to calculate premiums for a given LTC-plan. Instead of estimating the transition intensities in this model we use the approach suggested by Andersen et al. (2003) for a direct estimation of the transition probabilities. Based on the Aalen-Johansen estimator, an almost unbiased estimator for the transition matrix of a Markovian multi-state model, we calculate so-called pseudo-values, known from Jackknife methods. Further, we assume that the relationship between these pseudo-values and the covariates of our data are given by a GLM with the logit as link-function. Since the GLMs do not allow for correlation between successive observations we use instead the Generalized Estimating Equations (GEEs) to estimate the parameters of our regression model. The approach is illustrated using a representative sample from a German LTC portfolio.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aLudwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Sonderforschungsbereich 386 - Statistische Analyse diskreter Strukturen |cMünchenen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aDiscussion Paper |x393en
dc.subject.ddc519en
dc.subject.keywordMarkovian Multi-State Modelen
dc.subject.keywordTransition Probabilitiesen
dc.subject.keywordAalen-Johansen Estimatoren
dc.subject.keywordPseudo-Valuesen
dc.subject.keywordGLMen
dc.subject.keywordGEEen
dc.subject.keywordLTCen
dc.subject.keywordPremiumen
dc.titleCalculation of LTC Premiums based on direct estimates of transition probabilities-
dc.type|aWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn484035649en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen

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