Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/31064 
Year of Publication: 
2004
Series/Report no.: 
Discussion Paper No. 393
Publisher: 
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Sonderforschungsbereich 386 - Statistische Analyse diskreter Strukturen, München
Abstract: 
In this paper we model the life-history of LTC patients using a Markovian multi-state model in order to calculate premiums for a given LTC-plan. Instead of estimating the transition intensities in this model we use the approach suggested by Andersen et al. (2003) for a direct estimation of the transition probabilities. Based on the Aalen-Johansen estimator, an almost unbiased estimator for the transition matrix of a Markovian multi-state model, we calculate so-called pseudo-values, known from Jackknife methods. Further, we assume that the relationship between these pseudo-values and the covariates of our data are given by a GLM with the logit as link-function. Since the GLMs do not allow for correlation between successive observations we use instead the Generalized Estimating Equations (GEEs) to estimate the parameters of our regression model. The approach is illustrated using a representative sample from a German LTC portfolio.
Subjects: 
Markovian Multi-State Model
Transition Probabilities
Aalen-Johansen Estimator
Pseudo-Values
GLM
GEE
LTC
Premium
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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