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Title:Evaluating emission trading as a policy tool : evidence from conditional jump models PDF Logo
Authors:Gronwald, Marc
Ketterer, Janina
Issue Date:2009
Series/Report no.:CESifo working paper 2682
Abstract:This paper, first, empirically investigates European emission allowance (EUA) prices and, second, evaluates emission trading as a policy measure. Applying combined jump GARCH models yields strong evidence of conditional jump behavior. This implies that EUA prices are subject to unexpected movements and that a considerable degree of uncertainty is present. According to the real option literature, uncertainty has adverse effects on investment decisions. Thus, investments in abatement technologies are likely to be postponed due to the peculiar characteristics of emission allowance prices. Furthermore, this price behavior is at odds with the theoretical notion that emission prices equal marginal abatement costs.
Subjects:emission allowance prices
jumps
GARCH
real options
JEL:C22
Q50
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:CESifo Working Papers, CESifo Group Munich

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