Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/28349 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2009
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Kiel Working Paper No. 1521
Verlag: 
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), Kiel
Zusammenfassung: 
Long-run development (in income) causes a large fall in the share of agriculture commonly known as the agricultural transition. We confirm that this conventional wisdom is strongly supported by the data. Long-run development (in income) also causes a large increase in democracy known as the democratic transition. Elsewhere we have shown that it is almost as strong as the agricultural transition. Recently, a method has been presented to weed out spuriousness. It makes the democratic transition go away by turning income insignificant, when it is supplemented by a set of formal controls. We show that the same method makes the agricultural transition go away as well. Hence, it seems to be a method that kills far too much, as suggested by the subtitle. This suggestion leads to a discussion of the very meaning of long-run causality.
Schlagwörter: 
Long-run growth
transitions
causality and spuriousness
JEL: 
O1
P5
Q1
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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