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Title:The agricultural and the democratic transitions: causality and the roundup model PDF Logo
Authors:Gundlach, Erich
Paldam, Martin
Issue Date:2009
Citation:[Series:] Kiel working paper [No.:] 1521 [Editor:] Kiel Inst. for the World Economy, Kiel
Series/Report no.:Kiel working paper 1521
Abstract:Long-run development (in income) causes a large fall in the share of agriculture commonly known as the agricultural transition. We confirm that this conventional wisdom is strongly supported by the data. Long-run development (in income) also causes a large increase in democracy known as the democratic transition. Elsewhere we have shown that it is almost as strong as the agricultural transition. Recently, a method has been presented to weed out spuriousness. It makes the democratic transition go away by turning income insignificant, when it is supplemented by a set of formal controls. We show that the same method makes the agricultural transition go away as well. Hence, it seems to be a method that kills far too much, as suggested by the subtitle. This suggestion leads to a discussion of the very meaning of long-run causality.
Subjects:Long-run growth
transitions
causality and spuriousness
JEL:O1
P5
Q1
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Kieler Arbeitspapiere, IfW
Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des IfW

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