Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/28349
Authors: 
Gundlach, Erich
Paldam, Martin
Year of Publication: 
2009
Series/Report no.: 
Kiel working paper 1521
Abstract: 
Long-run development (in income) causes a large fall in the share of agriculture commonly known as the agricultural transition. We confirm that this conventional wisdom is strongly supported by the data. Long-run development (in income) also causes a large increase in democracy known as the democratic transition. Elsewhere we have shown that it is almost as strong as the agricultural transition. Recently, a method has been presented to weed out spuriousness. It makes the democratic transition go away by turning income insignificant, when it is supplemented by a set of formal controls. We show that the same method makes the agricultural transition go away as well. Hence, it seems to be a method that kills far too much, as suggested by the subtitle. This suggestion leads to a discussion of the very meaning of long-run causality.
Subjects: 
Long-run growth
transitions
causality and spuriousness
JEL: 
O1
P5
Q1
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size
534.92 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.